Us Midterms · resolved market
Senate vote on Epstein bill by November 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbad14ef923598b0f08b3ed2500d74eea29af081a8207591ea75669dc3071084d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,385
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,385 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,237$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 53c | 886$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.45 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 52c | 817.12$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.54 | 81 | 33.3%27 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 35c | 807.02$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3917…1bebbacked No | 64c | 720.84$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Yes | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 52c | 444.94$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 48c | 444$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef9…2d16backed Yes | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…1412backed No | 54c | 233.32$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed Yes | 70c | 209.19$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 42c | 156.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 52c | 149.04$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.14 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac3…eda2backed Yes | 60c | 128.24$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 49c | 121.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.9 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed No | 16c | 86.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf872…2242backed No | 75c | 16.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Senate vote on Epstein bill by November 21?this page
- Senate vote on Epstein bill by December 31?Yes won
- Senate vote on Epstein bill by November 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.