F1 · resolved market
Will Carlos Sainz win the Mexico City Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3fcd022f7cb9d2827406e773911a6a62b1db8014bd3670d931bad29aed0205bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,820 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 77c | 1,653$1,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.03 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Yes | 32c | 1,600$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58bf…040abacked Yes | 26c | 840.08$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 64c | 708.93$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.51 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 35c | 662.58$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.91 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 37c | 544.31$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.03 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7761…532fbacked Yes | 16c | 512.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.5 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e4…6db0backed Yes | 11c | 466.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd1…7918backed Yes | 63c | 399.86$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 65c | 348.15$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed No | 32c | 338.59$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.51 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 79c | 318.82$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.32 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a8…5df3backed Yes | 37c | 317.32$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.91 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7990…c870backed Yes | 36c | 315.55$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…21a2backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Yes | 27c | 282.57$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.28 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked Yes | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 15c | 243.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.23 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 35c | 217.4$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2523backed No | 69c | 197.56$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2372…8881backed Yes | 21c | 180.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 33c | 170.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.16 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8da9…7120backed Yes | 31c | 160$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…1b22backed Yes | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72fd…7e92backed Yes | 69c | 145.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +155.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 27c | 145$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.95 | 159 | 22%35 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 10c | 130.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.95 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a85…18e2backed Yes | 39c | 127.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…a1aabacked No | 56c | 121.17$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a2…dcffbacked No | 72c | 119.1$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 79c | 118.34$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.49 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0687…c863backed Yes | 37c | 108.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…cdbebacked Yes | 70c | 82.97$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc879…94d7backed Yes | 35c | 79.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…c9e7backed No | 67c | 74.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9024…fcdbbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca7…47f9backed Yes | 17c | 61.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +198.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…1770backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076e…adf5backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked No | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…0eeabacked Yes | 37c | 46.3$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…e2d3backed Yes | 66c | 45.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…3439backed No | 67c | 45.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…5576backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…0db2backed No | 68c | 41.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb4…9c38backed Yes | 37c | 40.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 29c | 37.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc3…c64cbacked No | 67c | 26.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…431fbacked No | 65c | 22.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…6215backed Yes | 67c | 22.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91a9…b5cdbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 70cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carlos Sainz win the Mexico City Grand Prix?this page
- Will Charles Leclerc win the Mexico City Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the Mexico City Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the Mexico City Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the Mexico City Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the Mexico City Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the Mexico City Grand Prix?No won
- Will Sergio Perez win the Mexico City Grand Prix?No won
- Will another driver win the Mexico City Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.