F1 · resolved market
Will Max Verstappen win the Mexico City Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x104382b636ebdd85f720e1ed740b604759891439bd2e83dbedba3683141b252d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,629
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x033e…4cdfbacked No | 80c | 6,289$5,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 80c | 4,603$3,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.42 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf374…ce1abacked No | 77c | 4,152$3,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Yes | 23c | 3,639$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.59 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…cdbebacked Yes | 14c | 3,221$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 132 | 19.7%26 W · 106 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed Yes | 9c | 2,818$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.9 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…6cecbacked Yes | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed Yes | 16c | 1,300$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…bd72backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…0dadbacked Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 3c | 870.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 53 | 7.5%4 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7af6…9508backed Yes | 27c | 738.13$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0af…8753backed Yes | 19c | 525.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 69c | 518$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.4 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2130…b64dbacked Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 77c | 497.38$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.65 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8409…93ccbacked No | 79c | 487.62$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8d…e564backed Yes | 21c | 466.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed Yes | 29c | 392.28$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…1c35backed No | 79c | 349.07$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked No | 80c | 250.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.71 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 69c | 217.79$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.32 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a2…dcffbacked Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 22c | 204.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 159 | 22%35 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Yes | 20c | 190.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9de…b9a0backed No | 79c | 190$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 20c | 186.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e70…605dbacked Yes | 17c | 155.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…ed49backed Yes | 29c | 155.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…3439backed Yes | 21c | 145.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked No | 78c | 116.4$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +139.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa9…0813backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3631…e526backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…513ebacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…2a31backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd673…1b22backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b4…b047backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…5adfbacked Yes | 23c | 87.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a5…c4abbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5634…403dbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2d…947bbacked Yes | 15c | 78.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc862…3fb2backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…3f05backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfd…a1dbbacked Yes | 30c | 67.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 22c | 67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc485…948dbacked Yes | 30c | 66.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5342…0f95backed Yes | 22c | 66.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07b…8aa1backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b3…2372backed Yes | 33c | 53.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe577…585fbacked Yes | 39c | 51.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e44…63f4backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…bf05backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…2b32backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4001…8cffbacked Yes | 24c | 40.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…cd69backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b97…0f17backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x692f…11eebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec3…9209backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69d7…2dabbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 71c | 35.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed No | 80c | 35.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…5576backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d5…6f6abacked No | 55c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 63c | 18.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff0…2f10backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Max Verstappen win the Mexico City Grand Prix?this page
- Will Carlos Sainz win the Mexico City Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the Mexico City Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the Mexico City Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the Mexico City Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the Mexico City Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the Mexico City Grand Prix?No won
- Will Sergio Perez win the Mexico City Grand Prix?No won
- Will another driver win the Mexico City Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.