Stocks · resolved market
Will KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) hit 4800 (LOW) in Q1 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd943c5c3fc74c08da3d0af5433904bd335828c90d5d4f6c49b9e960b70403c4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38db…c700backed Yes | 5c | 1,200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…4594backed Yes | 15c | 1,020$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…bc8fbacked Yes | 66c | 800$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…0b42backed Yes | 35c | 790.74$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x184c…61dfbacked Yes | 3c | 769.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 43c | 657.5$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked No | 66c | 655.22$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 11c | 415$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 416 | 8.7%36 W · 380 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…87c5backed Yes | 17c | 397.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb48…eb8cbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeacd…8143backed Yes | 30c | 274.09$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb95…1c62backed No | 67c | 208.84$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 160.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 111 | 7.2%8 W · 103 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57fb…1336backed Yes | 36c | 145.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 30c | 115.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160f…ef97backed No | 68c | 110.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe0…c897backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 27c | 80.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 75 | 22.7%17 W · 58 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 22c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 30c | 75.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c8…f511backed Yes | 17c | 71.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 67c | 60.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d61…b776backed Yes | 38c | 53.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed No | 71c | 37.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 23cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 39c | 26.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 67c | 18.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 57c | 17.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) hit 4800 (LOW) in Q1 2026?this page
- Will KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) hit 4500 (LOW) in Q1 2026?No won
- Will KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) hit 4600 (LOW) in Q1 2026?No won
- Will KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) hit 4700 (LOW) in Q1 2026?No won
- Will KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) hit 5300 (HIGH) in Q1 2026?Yes won
- Will KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) hit 5400 (HIGH) in Q1 2026?Yes won
- Will KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) hit 5750 (HIGH) in Q1 2026?Yes won
- Will KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) hit 6000 (HIGH) in Q1 2026?Yes won
- Will KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) hit 6500 (HIGH) in Q1 2026?No won
- Will KOSPI Composite Index (^KS11) hit 7000 (HIGH) in Q1 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.