Us Politics · resolved market
Will Mamdani make NYC buses free by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf94780c19caff2c1f480b92c58fcb3aae64a4dcab13653cadb230e839d67c0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed No | 77c | 6,573$5,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496.58 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69ff…0d1dbacked Yes | 21c | 3,810$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 79c | 3,189$2,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.46 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 10c | 2,200$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.91 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cc…f0e4backed Yes | 12c | 2,135$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 166 | 43.4%72 W · 94 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…7c09backed No | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…252dbacked Yes | 23c | 1,700$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1839…8825backed Yes | 1c | 1,637$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd3…82e5backed Yes | 23c | 1,621$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9275…b845backed Yes | 1c | 1,594$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,400$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ac…f8a3backed Yes | 2c | 1,184$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 21c | 1,110$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.1 | 71 | 28.2%20 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4589…12adbacked No | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…45cebacked No | 80c | 986.75$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…32afbacked Yes | 22c | 900$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…c3bdbacked Yes | 3c | 819.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 732.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 73 | 6.8%5 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 10c | 691.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e6…6fcbbacked Yes | 13c | 600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01dc…1839backed Yes | 23c | 600$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…cf3ebacked No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…b6b5backed Yes | 16c | 483.33$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked No | 78c | 440$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -54%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked No | 79c | 400$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +104.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 388.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 283.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6a5cbacked No | 80c | 255.68$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0309…22d1backed Yes | 6c | 252.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c60…67c1backed No | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdde7…ca8bbacked Yes | 12c | 220$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 77c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77c9…d567backed Yes | 14c | 191.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef4…3c7ebacked No | 77c | 184.56$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7083…49f9backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 16c | 124.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 22c | 115.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.79 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…696bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969d…a956backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf810…e877backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa38c…ee50backed Yes | 14c | 98.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…6fb0backed Yes | 13c | 94.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…ca8dbacked No | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2134…0734backed No | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe726…c243backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…9658backed No | 75c | 30.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.