TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

UFC Fight Night: Bukauskas vs. Craig

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bukauskasof Bukauskas, Craig
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,105
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$102,489

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,105 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe38e…c29dbacked Bukauskas76c20,002$15,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,879.2314857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Craig 24c19,082$4,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,579.7319154.5%104 W · 87 L+14.9wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Craig 26c14,759$3,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,809.6735253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Bukauskas74c11,584$8,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,011.771637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-23.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Craig 1c9,989$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8970%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Craig 25c3,100$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77535826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Bukauskas75c2,020$1,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.213545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Bukauskas75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50035664.6%230 W · 126 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb277…0aaabacked Craig 27c1,878$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.811735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-28.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Bukauskas75c1,842$1,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.166533.8%22 W · 43 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37d2…45eebacked Bukauskas75c1,326$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.432360.9%14 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Bukauskas75c1,200$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.9953956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Craig 25c1,104$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.0830964.7%200 W · 109 L+24.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked Bukauskas74c1,084$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.8412262.3%76 W · 46 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Craig 26c1,052$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.526451.6%33 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x486e…c403backed Craig 25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c9…2c23backed Bukauskas76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2401872.2%13 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick74cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Bukauskas76c987.22$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.465950.8%30 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7455…93adbacked Craig 25c969.98$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.4919531.8%62 W · 133 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa941…ec2ebacked Bukauskas74c921.15$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.165362.3%33 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick64cpaid+4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x476a…76bdbacked Craig 29c873$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2506262.9%39 W · 23 L+8.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+24.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Craig 25c852$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21323850.4%120 W · 118 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x285b…5231backed Bukauskas75c818$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.52259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Craig 25c726.45$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1801947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Craig 25c643.7$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.9210447.1%49 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae5…53c8backed Craig 26c588.44$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.995253.8%28 W · 24 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Bukauskas76c500$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12039959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Bukauskas79c458.33$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948544.7%38 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Craig 27c400$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10610651.9%55 W · 51 L+7.1wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb34…59eabacked Craig 25c399.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10013044.6%58 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc9f…45debacked Bukauskas76c397.17$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.322045%9 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63a9…f6a3backed Craig 28c362.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Bukauskas74c336$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.3618560%111 W · 74 L+0.9wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4dd…3046backed Bukauskas75c310.63$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.921752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9f5…dee1backed Bukauskas76c300.07$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.02450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Craig 25c299.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.868939.3%35 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Bukauskas74c273.71$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.8336655.2%202 W · 164 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaab…24ddbacked Bukauskas74c250$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+22.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f8d…e3ebbacked Bukauskas75c226.67$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.671464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Bukauskas77c220.17$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6410443.3%45 W · 59 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x42e8…e4e6backed Bukauskas75c212.04$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.01475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d02…bfecbacked Craig 26c210.29$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6811545.2%52 W · 63 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9461…a76bbacked Bukauskas75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501650%8 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4059…23dabacked Craig 25c199.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Bukauskas76c196$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.0414929.5%44 W · 105 L-15.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Bukauskas77c189.79$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.537754.6%206 W · 171 L+19.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5696…b3aabacked Bukauskas73c189.71$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.225550.9%28 W · 27 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2105…c514backed Craig 27c150$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.55632.1%18 W · 38 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked Bukauskas72c150$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.513160.3%79 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Bukauskas74c149.98$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.552252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Bukauskas70c142$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.624847.2%117 W · 131 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7d1…cd5ebacked Bukauskas75c137.07$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.271758.8%10 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Craig 26c125.23$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5613647.8%65 W · 71 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Bukauskas75c122$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.532545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0635…0119backed Bukauskas74c121.62$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.621471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1466…23d9backed Bukauskas76c121.05$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.051450%7 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Craig 25c119.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7751533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Craig 27c117.25$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4921031.9%67 W · 143 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc35…d905backed Bukauskas75c116.4$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.42050%10 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86e6…f634backed Craig 26c115.38$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309547.4%45 W · 50 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…d596backed Bukauskas75c110$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.51560%9 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid+9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3149…9762backed Bukauskas75c105.33$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.334450%22 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e2d…4323backed Bukauskas75c104.66$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.756451.6%33 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Craig 26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2656450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked Bukauskas74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Bukauskas53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Craig 25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2522144.3%98 W · 123 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac61…be42backed Craig 26c97.54$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.361145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Craig 26c96.15$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2511138.7%43 W · 68 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2766…4c94backed Bukauskas76c95.65$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.251163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8306…ecc9backed Bukauskas74c89.19$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.192356.5%13 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36bc…ec72backed Craig 25c88$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2215848.1%76 W · 82 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb406…4964backed Bukauskas75c87.69$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.921662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Bukauskas76c81.81$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.632924.1%7 W · 22 L-4.9wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-60.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0186…defdbacked Craig 25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204355.8%24 W · 19 L+6.6wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+45.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Bukauskas74c70$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.25455.6%30 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d17…b1fdbacked Bukauskas74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52df…9adfbacked Bukauskas75c67.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.76475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbef4…dbcdbacked Bukauskas75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.672157.1%12 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d94…92c9backed Bukauskas75c66.67$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.672040%8 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-41.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b1e…e465backed Craig 19c65.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.56731.3%21 W · 46 L-9.8wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-37.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x1a59…3f34backed Bukauskas76c65.79$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.79450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+99.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0522backed Bukauskas76c63.5$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.24475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x639e…a9d4backed Craig 27c62.96$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb155…07f1backed Bukauskas76c61.1$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.66666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ff…5ec3backed Craig 25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510040%40 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9083…d27bbacked Craig 25c60$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1515139.7%60 W · 91 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2140…6598backed Craig 24c58.33$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1413450%67 W · 67 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c7e…1fc5backed Bukauskas75c47.16$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.792100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Craig 25c44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1131855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefb4…9653backed Bukauskas75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106563.1%41 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick68cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x02f3…0a58backed Craig 26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.48047.5%38 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3778…8604backed Bukauskas76c39.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.474254.8%23 W · 19 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick67cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Bukauskas66c34.26$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.653652.8%19 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a18…ba41backed Bukauskas75c33.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.333100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4045…3307backed Bukauskas75c28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74852.1%25 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x862c…9d40backed Bukauskas75c28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a9…32a7backed Bukauskas74c24.32$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.32666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c72…5c26backed Bukauskas74c22$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7210452.9%55 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Bukauskas70c20.01$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.