UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Patterson vs. Waters
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18e2e1fbfce8374801beef93bbf2e79ff6ed4032fbeb192fca0d89c8b3eb4f6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Patterson of Patterson , Waters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,783
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,783 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Patterson | 62c | 24,178$15,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,165.56 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Waters | 38c | 18,715$7,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,082.86 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Waters | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Waters | 38c | 9,324$3,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,542.96 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Waters | 2c | 6,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +291.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Waters | 37c | 5,376$1,989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,989.14 | 160 | 49.4%79 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Patterson | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.99 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Patterson | 62c | 1,730$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.43 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476a…76bdbacked Waters | 39c | 1,522$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.7wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Patterson | 63c | 1,300$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Patterson | 62c | 1,022$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.19 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Patterson | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486e…c403backed Waters | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked Waters | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Patterson | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Patterson | 61c | 900$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Waters | 36c | 799.69$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.89 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…c0dfbacked Patterson | 64c | 783.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.44 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Patterson | 61c | 727.07$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.06 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9461…a76bbacked Waters | 39c | 597.2$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Patterson | 61c | 523.08$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.08 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Patterson | 63c | 431$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.47 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Patterson | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Waters | 35c | 344.62$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.62 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Waters | 38c | 328.95$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e8…e4e6backed Patterson | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe09f…4ad6backed Patterson | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Waters | 39c | 310.28$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.01 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Patterson | 62c | 300$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Waters | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…5638backed Patterson | 63c | 280$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +50%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Patterson | 61c | 251$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Patterson | 60c | 246.88$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.75 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Patterson | 62c | 222$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd201…0634backed Patterson | 63c | 206.61$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.61 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Patterson | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Patterson | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1466…23d9backed Patterson | 63c | 196.83$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.83 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Waters | 37c | 180$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…dacfbacked Patterson | 62c | 159.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…36fabacked Patterson | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Patterson | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Waters | 37c | 140$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…f66fbacked Patterson | 63c | 135.9$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.9 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Patterson | 62c | 125$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb575…2090backed Patterson | 63c | 110.06$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.72 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c79…15dbbacked Patterson | 63c | 107.79$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Waters | 35c | 107.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e6…f634backed Patterson | 63c | 103.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 95 | 47.4%45 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Patterson | 63c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…d9c7backed Waters | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Waters | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb653…85a4backed Patterson | 63c | 99.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…745fbacked Patterson | 63c | 87.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…45debacked Waters | 38c | 81.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a8…0cecbacked Waters | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e9…ee46backed Patterson | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…0672backed Patterson | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Patterson | 63c | 75.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…5c69backed Waters | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Waters | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Waters | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Waters | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked Patterson | 63c | 61.9$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Patterson | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a02…08b8backed Waters | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0186…defdbacked Waters | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Waters | 38c | 44.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…5ec3backed Patterson | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Waters | 36c | 38.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Waters | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…4323backed Patterson | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…d596backed Patterson | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…8160backed Patterson | 63c | 28.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Patterson | 59c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe016…424bbacked Waters | 41c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 89 | 32.6%29 W · 60 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142c…1098backed Patterson | 63c | 21.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Patterson | 62c | 17.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Patterson vs. Waters this page
- UFC Fight Night: Bannon vs. Hughes Hughes won
- UFC Fight Night: Bukauskas vs. Craig Bukauskas won
- UFC Fight Night: Gomis vs. RuchałaGomis won
- UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. FakhretdinovFakhretdinov won
- UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. BorralhoImavov won
- UFC Fight Night: Oki vs. JonesJones won
- UFC Fight Night: Saint Denis vs. Ruffy Saint Denis won
- UFC Fight Night: Sola vs. McKeeSola won
- UFC Fight Night: Sy vs. RibeiroSy won
- UFC Fight Night: Tavares vs. BryczekBryczek won
- UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. DelijaDelija won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.