Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8457f90c3cffe6a3eff55e38a37e63d69a8128b50e216502b553aba7975c869
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Down | 0c | 8,300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Up | 54c | 4,441$2,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.33 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea97…5ac0backed Down | 56c | 3,347$1,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,869.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a57…7b0abacked Down | 51c | 2,810$1,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,422.79 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…6f22backed Down | 56c | 2,452$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 8c | 2,236$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.43 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Up | 50c | 2,223$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.6 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked Down | 58c | 1,570$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Up | 72c | 1,141$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.41 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Down | 7c | 939.49$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.59 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Down | 55c | 913.81$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.98 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 14c | 832.38$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.52 | 152 | 21.7%33 W · 119 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Up | 50c | 779.07$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.63 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 15c | 775.02$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 307 | 38.8%119 W · 188 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Up | 58c | 721.21$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.91 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Down | 19c | 710.24$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.22 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aac…9603backed Up | 48c | 610$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.2 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Up | 45c | 509.53$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.48 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02fa…d979backed Up | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82af…f7d1backed Up | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x937e…8022backed Up | 58c | 496.42$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.61 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Down | 14c | 467$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.49 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +321.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…e88ebacked Up | 52c | 466.28$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Down | 34c | 459.99$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.7 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Down | 8c | 437.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb399…9435backed Up | 51c | 431.8$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Down | 55c | 272$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf19a…d7c0backed Down | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…384ebacked Up | 44c | 182.43$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.77 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…5bd3backed Up | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0503…4155backed Up | 45c | 164.81$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.65 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…df53backed Up | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed Up | 44c | 145.6$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.54 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Up | 76c | 143.23$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…05b2backed Up | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked Down | 62c | 129.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4656…41d7backed Down | 22c | 127.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3f…0a1bbacked Down | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d98…b354backed Up | 49c | 99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 62c | 78.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…162cbacked Up | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a06…921abacked Down | 31c | 66.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Down | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5f62backed Up | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 37cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc34…0953backed Up | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d6d…a087backed Down | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11db…df40backed Up | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aff…aad8backed Up | 44c | 42.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +129.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3a…258ebacked Down | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…531bbacked Up | 78c | 38.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39a…eeb6backed Up | 48c | 35.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd595…b30bbacked Up | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Up | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa6…192abacked Down | 55c | 26.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc7…6176backed Up | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.