Fifa International · resolved market
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f353ae02ba5a1b7d02ea837556b6d3016ce7edf85ef450a35a079e8aac69b98
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 68c | 4,667$3,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,183.67 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd896…9815backed Yes | 57c | 3,806$2,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,636.04 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -31%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Yes | 35c | 2,359$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…c9cabacked Yes | 37c | 2,336$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,471.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 17c | 1,187$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.59 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 65c | 939$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.78 | 120 | 46.7%56 W · 64 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 935.06$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.65 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 19c | 856.12$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.71 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 3c | 800.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 68c | 645.6$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.84 | 2,804 | 46.2%1,295 W · 1,509 L | -27.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bb…d137backed Yes | 16c | 629.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.75 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49f2…d7b4backed Yes | 13c | 550$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.5 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…8138backed No | 80c | 535.44$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.75 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 78c | 500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…857cbacked Yes | 23c | 495.84$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.8 | 157 | 40.8%64 W · 93 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c1…473ebacked Yes | 25c | 485.16$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.1 | 513 | 15.6%80 W · 433 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8e…21b7backed Yes | 19c | 390$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.39 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 383.49$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.53 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 33c | 368.7$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.45 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 13c | 338.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.28 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0a…83ebbacked Yes | 21c | 336.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.52 | 183 | 61.7%113 W · 70 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…32afbacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 127 | 26.8%34 W · 93 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f7…aef9backed Yes | 35c | 326.95$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.73 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 22c | 315.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.52 | 707 | 50.1%354 W · 353 L | +25.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…4a07backed Yes | 15c | 313$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.05 | 76 | 21.1%16 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 27c | 304$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.16 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 184 | 60.9%112 W · 72 L | +13.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd753…7823backed No | 66c | 297.48$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked No | 71c | 285.56$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.53 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 25c | 270.58$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.94 | 212 | 39.6%84 W · 128 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 15c | 270$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.76 | 320 | 44.1%141 W · 179 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…3830backed No | 76c | 263.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 72c | 261.86$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.36 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 18c | 249.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.24 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 33c | 249.41$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.06 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Yes | 22c | 247.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.13 | 102 | 54.9%56 W · 46 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb25b…8f5dbacked Yes | 20c | 241.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…5961backed Yes | 12c | 198.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.78 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -7.2wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 10c | 198$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 648 | 50.6%328 W · 320 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 20c | 183.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.94 | 181 | 39.8%72 W · 109 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 14c | 171.4$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.4 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b57…263ebacked Yes | 26c | 162.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.27 | 397 | 52.1%207 W · 190 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f722backed Yes | 79c | 149.85$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe041…be79backed No | 78c | 140.51$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 66c | 138$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 219 | 58%127 W · 92 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…d9fdbacked Yes | 29c | 130.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.87 | 185 | 53%98 W · 87 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67f…d9b3backed No | 77c | 130.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 15c | 126.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.96 | 792 | 31.1%246 W · 546 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…560bbacked Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 35c | 118$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 171 | 38%65 W · 106 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed No | 64c | 116$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.24 | 1,601 | 47.8%765 W · 836 L | +51.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 24c | 110$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 254 | 43.7%111 W · 143 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes | 20c | 108.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 108.21$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.51 | 363 | 35.8%130 W · 233 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 19c | 104.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cd…38eebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 82 | 18.3%15 W · 67 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f27…9097backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +207.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 96.6$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 175 | 58.9%103 W · 72 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 95.19$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.95 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 28c | 92.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcb…9540backed Yes | 31c | 90.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked No | 76c | 90$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…836ebacked Yes | 25c | 75.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 66.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 25c | 65.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 426 | 40.1%171 W · 255 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…665fbacked No | 77c | 63.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 33c | 51.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 341 | 51%174 W · 167 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…7277backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +277.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb2…b26cbacked No | 76c | 43.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd697…b7c7backed No | 37c | 35.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…3de3backed No | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8635…003ebacked No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 76c | 29.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 67c | 26.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 339 | 37.5%127 W · 212 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 669 | 32.1%215 W · 454 L | +16.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…9975backed No | 78c | 18.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 361 | 39.1%141 W · 220 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?this page
- Will Germany be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
- Will Germany be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?No won
- Will Germany be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Germany be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Germany win the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.