Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold close over $3,000 at the end of 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b997a36c06deb7112ee75acb316d7d7c3b08de99549c883e38a3442daeda39b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $445,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $399,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $445,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 6c | 20,067$1,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,266.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 5c | 13,934$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 0c | 13,924$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d3…3cfebacked Yes | 20c | 12,831$2,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,565.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a1…4c4ebacked Yes | 6c | 12,180$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 7c | 10,293$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.06 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…15f1backed Yes | 4c | 8,882$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 8,488$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b2…17e4backed Yes | 5c | 8,197$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…9971backed Yes | 5c | 8,064$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.04 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6c…1633backed Yes | 20c | 7,947$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…675ebacked Yes | 7c | 6,845$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 6,071$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.82 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…cb4dbacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf70…0cf5backed Yes | 11c | 5,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8661…5136backed Yes | 4c | 4,392$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 2c | 4,243$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92fd…f454backed Yes | 0c | 3,856$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x715b…3ee1backed Yes | 6c | 3,809$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4948…7ff4backed Yes | 10c | 3,010$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e71…1470backed Yes | 0c | 2,712$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…6492backed No | 60c | 2,430$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$971.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…6d42backed Yes | 40c | 2,202$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02ed…7251backed Yes | 0c | 2,200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5153…3d78backed Yes | 1c | 2,177$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad19…5785backed Yes | 1c | 2,063$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f5…61cabacked Yes | 12c | 2,000$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…2249backed Yes | 19c | 1,310$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 24c | 1,232$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.05 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3429…2323backed Yes | 17c | 1,228$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b1…e4efbacked Yes | 8c | 1,182$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.38 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -72%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…f289backed Yes | 8c | 1,119$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…9839backed Yes | 6c | 1,073$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 4c | 1,004$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf458…7670backed Yes | 18c | 999.96$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x455f…518abacked Yes | 3c | 986.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c1…1b90backed Yes | 11c | 899.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 11c | 886.54$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ee…4ab8backed Yes | 17c | 882.35$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 10c | 872.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes | 11c | 807.41$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a42…282fbacked Yes | 4c | 794.79$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…a3eebacked Yes | 2c | 789.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 768.91$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.1 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 16c | 760.08$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…d41fbacked Yes | 16c | 742.68$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fd…5626backed Yes | 7c | 682.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e5…7df4backed Yes | 9c | 649.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be6…3fedbacked No | 65c | 618.04$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9091…bba5backed Yes | 17c | 600$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 20c | 595$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes | 6c | 572.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed No | 70c | 466.94$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…3f05backed Yes | 4c | 454.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d14…a653backed Yes | 14c | 451.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6111…ce59backed Yes | 15c | 415.8$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…d129backed Yes | 12c | 399.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee18…4249backed Yes | 3c | 389.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea7b…05adbacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…6571backed Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed Yes | 14c | 367.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 18c | 359.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88cb…9ed1backed Yes | 18c | 348.14$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5a…fa77backed Yes | 15c | 337.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…e5a7backed Yes | 15c | 336.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked Yes | 9c | 326.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c0…ad3fbacked Yes | 35c | 317.68$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61db…17f9backed Yes | 19c | 315.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…15b2backed Yes | 8c | 310.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…a04bbacked Yes | 12c | 301.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…e34dbacked Yes | 4c | 300.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ab…c99abacked Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3952…f814backed Yes | 7c | 293.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63d3…1575backed Yes | 18c | 285.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…ae97backed Yes | 9c | 283.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74c0…27bebacked Yes | 18c | 283.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…cd56backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…d0d8backed Yes | 39c | 254.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x261f…a481backed Yes | 8c | 253.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4af…c1c6backed Yes | 12c | 252.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69bb…2c25backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7598…b535backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 79c | 242$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +321.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8d…0cb5backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2440backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 212.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a35…7c87backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437e…2144backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261a…3da9backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e13…7831backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…12ddbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 61c | 199.99$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 27cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked Yes | 16c | 199.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ef…da30backed No | 79c | 198.95$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdf…c10fbacked Yes | 18c | 189.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf59…6b27backed Yes | 19c | 184.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e5…0342backed Yes | 7c | 170$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.