TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x75e5…7df4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
65
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: NBA, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 53 out of 100; worst UFC at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST3250%16 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Warriors vs. Pelicansbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$578Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$577.8
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+455.6%+$49.2
NBA Playoffs: Nuggets vs. Clippers (To Advance)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$485Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$525.55
Will the Orlando Magic make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$50.35
Mavericks vs. Lakersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2025, EST-100%-$95.45
Will Team Shaq win the 2025 NBA All Star Game Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$477Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2025, EST+72.6%+$346.17
Will Damian Lillard win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST+30.5%+$64.46
Magic vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST+69.4%+$54.28
Suns vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$54
Mavericks vs. Pistonsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$219.34
Clippers vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$14.88
Rockets vs. Grizzliesbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$36.67
Nuggets vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2025, EST+69.5%+$53.3
Jazz vs. Warriorsbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$134.69
Bucks vs. Trail Blazersbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$78.24
Lakers vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+150.1%+$56
Clippers vs. Sunsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$106.96
Rockets vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$134
Celtics vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$41.25
Cavaliers vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+376.2%+$100.63
Celtics vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST+185.7%+$108.35
Timberwolves vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$88.15
76ers vs. Nuggetsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$17.03
Lakers vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+61.3%+$123.5
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$48.08
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2025, EST1241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Canada win the NHL 4 Nations Face-Off?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$72.28
Blackhawks vs. Panthersbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$17
Stars vs. Golden Knightsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+108.3%+$54.6
Panthers vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST+81.8%+$110.21
Avalanche vs. Bruinsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$148.4
Golden Knights vs. Starsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$82
Utah vs. Wildbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST+150%+$114.53
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST-100%-$80.22
Oilers vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST-100%-$66.6
Panthers vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2025, EST-100%-$163.5
Lightning vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2025, EST+117.3%+$112.35
Bruins vs. Panthersbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST+163.2%+$50.58
All 12 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-63.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 317: Pantoja vs. Kara-Francebacked Pantoja · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$6.35
UFC 317: Dariush vs. Moicanobacked Moicano · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.55
Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedovbacked Nurmagomedov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$260
Jones vs. Miocicbacked Miocic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2024, EST-100%-$44.96
All 4 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Aug 31, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Battle of the Sexes: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nick Kyrgiosbacked Kyrgios · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+33.5%+$24.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$22.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close over $3,000 at the end of 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$58.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran strike on Israel before December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$46
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Yankees vs. Metsbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$258.96
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.