NHL · resolved market
Golden Knights vs. Stars
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x481fddb3835d2c51543b0180a58e5fa3cf9d590ea9b5410d7259ab5982443a1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Starsof Golden Knights, Stars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Golden Knights | 13c | 4,166$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.75 | 313 | 34.8%109 W · 204 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Golden Knights | 1c | 1,964$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 1,163 | 2.3%27 W · 1,136 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Stars | 56c | 1,500$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…5801backed Golden Knights | 44c | 1,438$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.72 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15c9…e725backed Golden Knights | 16c | 1,426$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.45 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Golden Knights | 40c | 1,186$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.32 | 355 | 45.4%161 W · 194 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Golden Knights | 37c | 1,090$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Stars | 60c | 1,000$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.5 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…e364backed Golden Knights | 9c | 839.44$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Stars | 57c | 789.84$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.63 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Stars | 66c | 593.27$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.97 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…f170backed Golden Knights | 32c | 558.36$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.8 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Golden Knights | 41c | 505$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.13 | 724 | 44.6%323 W · 401 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Stars | 59c | 468.36$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.7 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Golden Knights | 11c | 448.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Golden Knights | 6c | 429.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 745 | 0.7%5 W · 740 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Stars | 57c | 385.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.97 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…79a4backed Stars | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x034b…8bc0backed Golden Knights | 42c | 334.01$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.62 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x945e…2acabacked Stars | 76c | 308.46$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.81 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Golden Knights | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 194 | 38.1%74 W · 120 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Golden Knights | 44c | 227$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.88 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Golden Knights | 12c | 203.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Stars | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…9702backed Stars | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Golden Knights | 42c | 199.95$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 508 | 57.7%293 W · 215 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e5…7df4backed Golden Knights | 43c | 190.7$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Golden Knights | 43c | 186.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4679…cd40backed Golden Knights | 43c | 105$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd220…0c5cbacked Stars | 57c | 102$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…585fbacked Stars | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…d9e2backed Stars | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cc…87e8backed Golden Knights | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Stars | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 500 | 49.4%247 W · 253 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc647…efa0backed Golden Knights | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Golden Knights | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6a…81d6backed Stars | 58c | 96.61$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3251…9963backed Golden Knights | 43c | 91.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf73…eaf1backed Golden Knights | 43c | 85.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Stars | 77c | 84.19$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.73 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6947…28b3backed Stars | 59c | 84.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c9…271bbacked Stars | 60c | 83.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2235…d67fbacked Stars | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…d18cbacked Golden Knights | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ece…5e35backed Stars | 59c | 79.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Stars | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 854 | 64.2%548 W · 306 L | +64.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Stars | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 432 | 56.5%244 W · 188 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…9441backed Golden Knights | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbb…a8fbbacked Stars | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Stars | 57c | 49.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 493 | 51.3%253 W · 240 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Golden Knights | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 459 | 54.2%249 W · 210 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…f4eebacked Golden Knights | 50c | 40.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Stars | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x065f…ab50backed Stars | 59c | 39.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Golden Knights | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 249 | 49.8%124 W · 125 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Golden Knights | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8643backed Golden Knights | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 182 | 59.9%109 W · 73 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb18…198cbacked Stars | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1665…a0bebacked Golden Knights | 45c | 31.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…4831backed Stars | 57c | 22.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c51…e800backed Stars | 72c | 22.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.