College Football · resolved market
Illinois vs. Duke
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc8c0233c4a920c19c1ae03de3768d8f329779509543baa4a44df7dcd257fc23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinoisof Illinois, Duke
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $454,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $482,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $454,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Duke | 36c | 107,201$38,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,375.07 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Illinois | 60c | 75,097$45,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,060.43 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Illinois | 57c | 37,137$20,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,144.6 | 292 | 49%143 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Illinois | 59c | 35,881$21,336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,544.84 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3d…35d0backed Illinois | 55c | 32,387$17,701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,685.72 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Duke | 43c | 28,777$12,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,374.05 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Illinois | 55c | 25,444$14,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,409.64 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Illinois | 79c | 24,123$19,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,959.45 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Duke | 45c | 21,514$9,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,671.5 | 309 | 49.5%153 W · 156 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Duke | 44c | 20,000$8,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,799.99 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Duke | 43c | 16,434$7,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,066.75 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Duke | 43c | 15,000$6,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,449.99 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa983…46a3backed Illinois | 63c | 13,389$8,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,888.9 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a61…b560backed Duke | 45c | 12,202$5,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,525.93 | 68 | 38.2%26 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Duke | 43c | 11,938$5,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,122.33 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Illinois | 58c | 10,092$5,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,217.41 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Duke | 44c | 9,000$3,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,960 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Duke | 28c | 8,335$2,357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,356.62 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Illinois | 50c | 7,727$3,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,863.48 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…968abacked Illinois | 57c | 7,007$3,964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,043 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Duke | 46c | 5,520$2,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,553.79 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Duke | 43c | 4,808$2,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,051.57 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Duke | 42c | 4,506$1,893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,892.52 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f4…55c1backed Duke | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Illinois | 57c | 3,500$2,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496.9 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…733ebacked Duke | 45c | 3,345$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,505.23 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.7wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Duke | 38c | 3,000$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.19 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Duke | 45c | 3,000$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.59 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +7.6wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +600.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Duke | 37c | 2,507$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.39 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…0d03backed Duke | 46c | 2,148$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Duke | 47c | 1,508$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.31 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x486e…c403backed Duke | 49c | 1,506$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.59 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…acd1backed Duke | 23c | 1,385$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.85 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Duke | 30c | 1,350$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.73 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Duke | 43c | 1,346$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.37 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Duke | 44c | 1,253$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.71 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Duke | 43c | 1,204$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.14 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd8…4bf1backed Duke | 55c | 1,150$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Duke | 44c | 1,145$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.8 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed Duke | 56c | 1,012$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.71 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Illinois | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed Illinois | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Duke | 20c | 935.08$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.31 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed Illinois | 56c | 900$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.65 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Illinois | 55c | 831.53$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.73 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197f…dc8dbacked Duke | 48c | 785.23$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.43 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Illinois | 56c | 769$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.32 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Illinois | 58c | 730$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.39 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…e43bbacked Illinois | 57c | 701.86$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.86 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Duke | 25c | 700$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Duke | 40c | 693.39$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.02 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Duke | 32c | 667.83$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.04 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Duke | 42c | 667$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.14 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc2…98a6backed Illinois | 59c | 650$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Duke | 3c | 648$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Duke | 44c | 600$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Duke | 43c | 600$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Duke | 44c | 547$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.32 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Illinois | 70c | 541$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.57 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Duke | 31c | 540$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Illinois | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6227…18dabacked Duke | 15c | 482.57$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.01 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Illinois | 56c | 464.29$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.29 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…b6e3backed Duke | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe544…3cfcbacked Duke | 44c | 447.73$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Duke | 45c | 442.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Illinois | 55c | 431.91$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.36 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Duke | 42c | 426.53$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.86 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Illinois | 57c | 411.21$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.53 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Duke | 11c | 404.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…9da2backed Illinois | 57c | 401.22$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3545…741dbacked Illinois | 52c | 400.15$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Duke | 49c | 382.98$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.86 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Illinois | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -8.0wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…a8ddbacked Illinois | 57c | 314.04$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Illinois | 70c | 283.89$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 61 | 70.5%43 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d22…ec35backed Illinois | 61c | 280$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Illinois | 64c | 250.03$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.56 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Duke | 45c | 249.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b1…5a3fbacked Duke | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a4…42e1backed Illinois | 57c | 219.3$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…4e71backed Illinois | 67c | 218$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.94 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea63…f54fbacked Duke | 45c | 206.67$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Duke | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Illinois | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Duke | 44c | 199.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked Duke | 43c | 192$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88fc…e669backed Illinois | 56c | 189.7$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Illinois | 54c | 185$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf45…c508backed Illinois | 57c | 181.14$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.89 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…1e59backed Illinois | 59c | 171.19$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e5…7df4backed Illinois | 57c | 170$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Duke | 41c | 160$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28b6…4eddbacked Duke | 44c | 159$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Duke | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Illinois | 55c | 148$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 173 | 61.3%106 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x350d…b898backed Duke | 51c | 127.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -73%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Illinois | 57c | 127.29$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.74 | 110 | 22.7%25 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Illinois | 57c | 123$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa320…8232backed Illinois | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.81 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Illinois vs. Dukethis page
- Illinois vs. Duke: O/U 50.5Over won
- Spread: Illinois (-3.5)Illinois won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.