College Football · resolved market
Spread: Illinois (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x261892ad96e7077dd8eb6f3a01170719b59b37aad995af564f422803b1ad0291
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Illinoisof Illinois, Duke
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ef…7be6backed Duke | 50c | 720$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Illinois | 50c | 670.2$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.1 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9bc…73b7backed Illinois | 44c | 395.99$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.75 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Duke | 56c | 269.56$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.95 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Illinois | 43c | 257.55$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.84 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Duke | 58c | 200$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -8.5wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Duke | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Illinois | 42c | 118.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.96 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Duke | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Duke | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Illinois | 42c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed Illinois | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…416abacked Duke | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Illinois (-3.5)this page
- Illinois vs. DukeIllinois won
- Illinois vs. Duke: O/U 50.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.