NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Bruins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a43bd56a870849898b7c2a1141f0f8519cd74216e1588f22bdb378c2e7ce642
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bruinsof Avalanche, Bruins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Avalanche | 58c | 23,673$13,717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,717.13 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Bruins | 42c | 20,000$8,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,600 | 355 | 45.4%161 W · 194 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f16…b561backed Avalanche | 80c | 2,633$2,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,094.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Avalanche | 15c | 1,627$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.35 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Avalanche | 20c | 1,480$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.77 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Bruins | 79c | 1,430$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.89 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Avalanche | 76c | 1,298$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.7 | 237 | 61.6%146 W · 91 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…50c2backed Avalanche | 78c | 1,029$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Avalanche | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,163 | 2.3%27 W · 1,136 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Avalanche | 59c | 1,000$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.69 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6860…ef1fbacked Bruins | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…711abacked Bruins | 42c | 895$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.1 | 137 | 56.2%77 W · 60 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa075…09fdbacked Bruins | 25c | 880$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Bruins | 41c | 781.99$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.37 | 298 | 47%140 W · 158 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdde…9d2ebacked Bruins | 49c | 735.73$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1396…b149backed Avalanche | 56c | 678.57$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Bruins | 44c | 620$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.2 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Bruins | 43c | 564.51$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.36 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Bruins | 42c | 537$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.46 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Bruins | 43c | 528.89$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.47 | 322 | 51.9%167 W · 155 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…f170backed Avalanche | 58c | 523.71$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.02 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Avalanche | 3c | 520$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 745 | 0.7%5 W · 740 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Bruins | 44c | 504.99$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.31 | 724 | 44.6%323 W · 401 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Avalanche | 43c | 439.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.1 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Bruins | 45c | 427.77$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.27 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Bruins | 42c | 300$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 313 | 34.8%109 W · 204 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489a…bcdebacked Bruins | 45c | 281.4$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe00…20c6backed Avalanche | 57c | 281.4$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed Avalanche | 70c | 273.22$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.25 | 149 | 49.7%74 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb09…0f04backed Avalanche | 16c | 268.63$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Avalanche | 56c | 267.22$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 380 | 40.5%154 W · 226 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e5…7df4backed Avalanche | 56c | 265$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…d18cbacked Bruins | 47c | 262.15$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.99 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Bruins | 43c | 250$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.5 | 543 | 49.5%269 W · 274 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Bruins | 43c | 238.77$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.1 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Bruins | 28c | 228.51$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.38 | 323 | 31.3%101 W · 222 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…a821backed Bruins | 41c | 223.77$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.87 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c92…1194backed Bruins | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Bruins | 45c | 207.38$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.14 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Bruins | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Bruins | 41c | 199.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 508 | 57.7%293 W · 215 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ac…3b94backed Avalanche | 48c | 177.21$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f5…9093backed Avalanche | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…f3fdbacked Bruins | 44c | 159.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.09 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2920…80bebacked Avalanche | 56c | 158.39$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 249 | 45.8%114 W · 135 L | -11.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2235…d67fbacked Bruins | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…2014backed Avalanche | 79c | 113.98$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Bruins | 79c | 111.71$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8494…3413backed Bruins | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…8b9abacked Avalanche | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Bruins | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1,037 | 55%570 W · 467 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc85…6062backed Avalanche | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Bruins | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 544 | 18%98 W · 446 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…1ca6backed Bruins | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Bruins | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Bruins | 67c | 98.8$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c9…271bbacked Avalanche | 58c | 85.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Avalanche | 55c | 79.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 191 | 50.8%97 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf734…c613backed Bruins | 43c | 74.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Bruins | 42c | 72.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 493 | 51.3%253 W · 240 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…b387backed Bruins | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Bruins | 41c | 69.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.02 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8643backed Bruins | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 182 | 59.9%109 W · 73 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Avalanche | 56c | 54.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 840 | 51.4%432 W · 408 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Avalanche | 56c | 53.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…1bd7backed Bruins | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e09…86a4backed Avalanche | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d7…25e9backed Avalanche | 79c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 138 | 46.4%64 W · 74 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…59c5backed Bruins | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…d04fbacked Avalanche | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Avalanche | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Avalanche | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 459 | 54.2%249 W · 210 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…a85cbacked Avalanche | 57c | 34.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb18…198cbacked Avalanche | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb18…2571backed Bruins | 46c | 33.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.5wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…af06backed Avalanche | 56c | 29.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…c990backed Avalanche | 56c | 27.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…f3fbbacked Avalanche | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 155 | 49.7%77 W · 78 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…cba9backed Bruins | 46c | 25.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…b133backed Avalanche | 79c | 21.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…c0d4backed Avalanche | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd28a…6bdcbacked Avalanche | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x241c…a932backed Avalanche | 56c | 17.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.