NBA · resolved market
Will Damian Lillard win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d1325b6db95d001c0aeec176d6afbb4ec622913d87657ff5d2d5c6ebe44d727
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,295
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,295 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 77c | 5,301$4,082 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.16 | 216 | 49.1%106 W · 110 L | +18.8wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…c5c1backed Yes | 23c | 1,500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad7c…43a5backed Yes | 25c | 1,482$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…279fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,389$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.54 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30ae…4318backed Yes | 24c | 1,072$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.12 | 298 | 58.7%175 W · 123 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…edbdbacked Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 350 | 46%161 W · 189 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb633…0dd5backed Yes | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 75c | 599.98$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 76c | 302.77$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.84 | 245 | 49%120 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed No | 78c | 300.01$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.22 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x809c…a50bbacked Yes | 24c | 278.24$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e5…7df4backed No | 77c | 275.57$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.46 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2911…fed6backed No | 73c | 239.73$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…d38ebacked Yes | 22c | 230$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…e458backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 200 | 50.5%101 W · 99 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…9e2ebacked Yes | 11c | 186.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +160.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 23c | 172.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 75c | 135.2$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 78c | 134.15$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Yes | 23c | 132.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -9.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -34%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6b75…c585backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ef…92abbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +202.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7657…4fa6backed Yes | 23c | 83.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84e9…2285backed Yes | 24c | 81.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 243 | 34.2%83 W · 160 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Yes | 23c | 58.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 427 | 40.3%172 W · 255 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 75c | 46.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 78c | 40.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 182 | 46.7%85 W · 97 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b0…449cbacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1c…d239backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd42…7a65backed No | 76c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x674b…c991backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…f247backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Damian Lillard win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest?this page
- Will Buddy Hield win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest?No won
- Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest?No won
- Will Cameron Johnson win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest?No won
- Will Darius Garland win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest?No won
- Will Norman Powell win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest?No won
- Will Tyler Herro win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.