NBA · resolved market
Will Darius Garland win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe01645ef00c21ccf4ac3d96ecab06f5af74165a83bef076128b8f64b46449faa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07b8…3842backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 16c | 800$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 306 | 41.8%128 W · 178 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b5…d159backed Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x377c…91aebacked Yes | 13c | 380$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 475 | 35.8%170 W · 305 L | +41.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bba…211fbacked Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Yes | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0349…7122backed Yes | 15c | 105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2e…515cbacked Yes | 12c | 99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d2…ee94backed Yes | 14c | 97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cc…ded5backed Yes | 16c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b71…19e7backed Yes | 13c | 85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2191…807cbacked Yes | 14c | 77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ded…43b8backed Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Darius Garland win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest?this page
- Will Buddy Hield win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest?No won
- Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest?No won
- Will Cameron Johnson win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest?No won
- Will Damian Lillard win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest?No won
- Will Norman Powell win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest?No won
- Will Tyler Herro win the 2025 NBA 3-Point Contest?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.