TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LIX be orange?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,894
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$51,950

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,894 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4b86…0311backed Yes11c20,035$2,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,163.1850%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x890f…19cbbacked Yes10c3,389$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3361233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes10c1,994$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.251508%12 W · 138 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b2a…25d5backed Yes16c1,295$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Yes11c1,013$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.5515332%49 W · 104 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5576…622fbacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick22cpaid-65.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0180…9d86backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb869…c4c6backed Yes9c900$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.670%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes12c861.22$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.42821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-43.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe489…8429backed Yes17c832.94$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Yes9c774.27$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.433961.5%24 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes15c651.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10090%0 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1514…2624backed Yes6c583.12$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.132343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504628.3%13 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5eab…c98abacked Yes12c412.74$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502941.4%12 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadeb…1816backed Yes10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40100%0 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1bda…3e1bbacked Yes10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-53.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7b…04d8backed Yes12c329.83$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.23per pick30cpaid-86%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc4c8…8618backed Yes15c329.41$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-43.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb76…9bebbacked Yes13c307.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1747…0e40backed Yes14c303.47$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2361…314bbacked Yes11c280$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-72%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3391…ed51backed Yes9c276.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.86757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+36.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4e2…a960backed Yes12c269.18$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1340%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed Yes11c263.31$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.334129.3%12 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-58.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba2f…fa91backed Yes17c250$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x991f…aa6cbacked Yes10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x214d…8911backed Yes18c227.31$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408446.4%39 W · 45 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-21.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe17…dd5cbacked Yes17c210$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.7633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes14c200.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1410442.3%44 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafc9…c670backed Yes12c200.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4165…3fd0backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb431…0c91backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0468…2e47backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa80e…dfefbacked Yes8c180$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.42015%3 W · 17 L-6.3wins-0.32per pick47cpaid-71.4%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x187f…69a8backed Yes11c177.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-51.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f4d…79dabacked Yes12c170.25$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe6dc…6b7ebacked Yes12c167.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xada8…e087backed Yes9c156.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-59.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc729…5faabacked Yes15c152.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8660%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c72…1e3abacked Yes11c150$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.93946.2%18 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2366…1078backed Yes14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206435.9%23 W · 41 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5ce8…4e05backed Yes12c139.81$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbf82…d7f9backed Yes10c134.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a34…00f2backed Yes15c133.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2020…0822backed Yes15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110345.6%47 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4374…1ddabacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.55520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-60%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70a8…9105backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112825%7 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-62.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0dc…3944backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf006…b003backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f38…98c3backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-64.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e5d…5598backed Yes46c87.43$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-43.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe9ca…937cbacked Yes28c82.14$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2330%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes15c81$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.920632%66 W · 140 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb52…55ecbacked Yes20c69.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70ff…aa94backed Yes15c65.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cac…6fa7backed Yes18c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4768…bc37backed Yes38c52.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x359e…6a0fbacked Yes46c44.56$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.61216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.1wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.