World Politics · resolved market
Will average US gas price hit $3.50 in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb63ee5669508a19f73be6145fd86ca5c5af9a4399b303e7ea097a348e3864d83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa52b…9480backed No | 79c | 2,849$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 73cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 21c | 2,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 8c | 1,651$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.02 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 73c | 1,536$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.77 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a9…6a74backed Yes | 23c | 1,261$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb869…c4c6backed Yes | 19c | 351$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14be…4498backed Yes | 6c | 345.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 7c | 340.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 7c | 221$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…8b4fbacked Yes | 7c | 205.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 25c | 191$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.16 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf061…2572backed Yes | 29c | 173.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 143.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 76c | 135$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 25c | 124.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed No | 80c | 91.81$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x795d…63e7backed No | 72c | 89.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbf…595ebacked Yes | 27c | 70.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked No | 74c | 67.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…adabbacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 24c | 46.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea3…52a1backed No | 78c | 40.95$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22de…9059backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb03…4bdfbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9eb…0ee5backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d77…fdbebacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 72c | 14.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.