TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on January 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Upof Up, Down
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,548
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$20,150

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,548 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf058…f8c8backed Down8c1,566$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc9d…efc0backed Up36c1,203$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+181%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a46…0563backed Up59c996.17$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2361…e16ebacked Up67c985.21$665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.254067.5%27 W · 13 L+7.5wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+31.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Down31c887.71$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.05287.1%2 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-88.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4adc…e731backed Up47c660.32$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3f…6221backed Down70c634.71$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xccba…ffb0backed Up47c615.96$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x001a…24b0backed Up47c607.53$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93c4…dca6backed Down31c520.23$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.78714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick43cpaid-78.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8cc5…f5e1backed Down77c387.52$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x096b…f1a5backed Up51c332.22$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfde…3f9cbacked Up51c300.81$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.29425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-50.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c9a…553bbacked Down44c205.98$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.177131%22 W · 49 L-10.0wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-46.3%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x7ebf…4e90backed Down50c193.14$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f9e…2f8bbacked Down50c193.12$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad8…169abacked Down50c192.94$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0b…8b05backed Down50c192.74$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca63…7e5bbacked Down50c192.36$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c9a…bd06backed Down50c192.36$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3d3…59f1backed Down50c192.26$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0536…a568backed Down50c191.44$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4852…cc50backed Down50c191.4$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce12…9cd6backed Down50c189.68$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87f3…09b1backed Up50c189.38$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c54…248dbacked Up50c189.26$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf468…7803backed Down50c189.2$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ae…bb05backed Up50c188.5$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe42f…1a7abacked Down50c188.16$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7332…f02ebacked Down50c187.9$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x754a…caf0backed Up50c187.76$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x209d…2b50backed Up50c187.54$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4866…be26backed Up50c187.52$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd6…dca1backed Up50c187.24$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c69…51b4backed Up50c187.12$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07e1…9c31backed Down50c186.94$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d50…3477backed Up50c186.84$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04cb…9de5backed Up50c186.68$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4310…2c2ebacked Up50c186.66$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f97…0002backed Down50c186.1$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ed…ee18backed Down50c185.94$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1251…770dbacked Down50c185.78$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5861…739bbacked Up50c185.54$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3658…d4ebbacked Up50c185.28$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9394…3a7fbacked Up50c185.24$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb5b…1f59backed Up50c185.04$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x298e…4e86backed Down50c184.28$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x696e…c03bbacked Down50c184.2$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7fb…338bbacked Up50c184.16$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf536…939cbacked Up50c183.74$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe232…07f7backed Up50c183.68$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb08a…cbe8backed Up50c182.28$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x440e…c364backed Up50c180.68$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67c4…f0a4backed Up55c176.36$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.362100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+131.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cda…f20cbacked Down68c159.09$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Down10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb368…9734backed Down70c143.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc320…7637backed Up75c128.78$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.014837.5%18 W · 30 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf79…4935backed Down50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Down28c115.61$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4512829.7%38 W · 90 L-15.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-55.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x48eb…4addbacked Down65c102.25$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0840%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Down10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Up30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$705635.7%20 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick25cpaid-10.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xabfd…8ef0backed Down49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbf6…5cc2backed Up40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Up36c95.59$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.724126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71a…1bb6backed Down69c95$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.81266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+18.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Down27c93.34$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.631,0329.3%96 W · 936 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-54.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2607…e7e7backed Up21c90.21$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+380.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0dc…3944backed Up77c81.33$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.641947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-24.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Up31c80.59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.399312.9%12 W · 81 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x115d…3191backed Up52c73.51$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.511100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Up26c72.84$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.934040%16 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0df2…68e7backed Down70c71.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d1e…a337backed Down59c69.62$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cea…f32abacked Down51c67.25$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.42839.3%11 W · 17 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+87.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0237…e7b2backed Up68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-25.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0df…40fabacked Up59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Up47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2815556.1%87 W · 68 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3486…c2e0backed Down55c49.49$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea3…3f02backed Down49c49.41$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ef0…1812backed Up50c49.16$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e78…9d93backed Up74c48$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.64580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+67.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xad1a…0524backed Up68c45.67$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…05eabacked Down54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd990…63fdbacked Up59c36.95$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ea6…5797backed Down64c31.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.98520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-68.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2315…39b1backed Down56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb7a…15babacked Up69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e21…6acdbacked Down52c28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5dd4…d37abacked Down68c28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.04250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41ab…6952backed Up61c27.94$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf72f…f5fdbacked Down57c27.32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x512a…a539backed Up46c26.74$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34a0…2441backed Up75c26.63$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb77…4e8cbacked Up69c24.52$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe61c…df96backed Down47c23.4$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb6e…b800backed Down50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bfc…b070backed Down63c15.94$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.