Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add between 50k and 99k jobs in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc449f7f691d7cd9da2db29937f9e79c0bdd8b353dd1d1a4d7f360fb60d0fc576
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 20c | 4,358$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.04 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 16c | 3,221$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.33 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 20c | 1,900$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,595$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 23c | 1,573$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.8 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3418…a3f2backed Yes | 24c | 1,500$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed No | 79c | 1,376$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.82 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 15c | 1,252$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.04 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5115…b61dbacked No | 78c | 1,134$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.34 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…af12backed Yes | 20c | 963.62$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.7 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 25c | 941.66$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.36 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93c…689cbacked Yes | 22c | 886.55$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 22c | 699.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.2 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…9bd2backed Yes | 18c | 679.37$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…2cf2backed Yes | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e0…bd10backed Yes | 23c | 511.96$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 27c | 504.04$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.84 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…bfefbacked Yes | 26c | 488.93$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 33c | 460.94$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 70c | 454.15$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 16c | 396.14$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57bd…cf55backed Yes | 12c | 308$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 21c | 259.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 24c | 250$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 25c | 225.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24fd…beebbacked Yes | 37c | 204.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 35c | 200$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.58 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 22c | 185.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 63c | 180$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 170$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…da7abacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 23c | 165$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…638abacked Yes | 15c | 124.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…dcb7backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Yes | 30c | 117.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 77c | 116.14$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 65c | 115$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…fb06backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes | 32c | 97.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 33c | 93.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked Yes | 37c | 81.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…ea70backed Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 70.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed Yes | 40c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 80c | 41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add between 50k and 99k jobs in June?this page
- Will the US add 200k or more jobs in June?No won
- Will the US add between 100k and 149k jobs in June?Yes won
- Will the US add between 150k and 199k jobs in June?No won
- Will the US add less than 50k jobs in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.