Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add less than 50k jobs in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4df025c5e8da670b6f19cacea4d9c745960e8174126eb64fcfb4c9a67f2d75d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3418…a3f2backed Yes | 6c | 7,010$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 3c | 4,079$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.45 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 5c | 2,635$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.67 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,452$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,361$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 7c | 2,200$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.26 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 4c | 1,358$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…bfefbacked Yes | 4c | 1,219$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.66 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…2cf2backed Yes | 3c | 1,089$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 11c | 920$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.4 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 752.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e0…bd10backed Yes | 4c | 552.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…210ebacked Yes | 15c | 486.44$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 9c | 459.49$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.3 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed Yes | 3c | 438.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed Yes | 3c | 424.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…dcb7backed Yes | 5c | 417.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 3c | 403$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 7c | 383.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…1338backed Yes | 8c | 327$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57bd…cf55backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 15c | 280$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 14c | 199.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…f10ebacked Yes | 11c | 101.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3e…eddbbacked Yes | 15c | 98.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add less than 50k jobs in June?this page
- Will the US add 200k or more jobs in June?No won
- Will the US add between 100k and 149k jobs in June?Yes won
- Will the US add between 150k and 199k jobs in June?No won
- Will the US add between 50k and 99k jobs in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.