Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add between 100k and 149k jobs in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14960d60c790fbf1746f06416e7d66d0e552e3530d3788c9c46603ee98d7b858
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,668
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,668 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 62c | 6,165$3,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,357.35 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 61c | 5,487$3,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115.75 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed No | 33c | 1,850$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 59c | 1,569$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.51 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 1,414$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.79 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…fbcfbacked Yes | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…b73dbacked No | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edd…8309backed Yes | 57c | 877.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5115…b61dbacked Yes | 71c | 796.94$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.18 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 42c | 725.6$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.68 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63a6…f308backed No | 34c | 499.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 429.64$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.44 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 35c | 423.71$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.55 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 55c | 387.69$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 38c | 356.5$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.08 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed No | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ed…f17dbacked Yes | 65c | 298.23$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 43c | 281$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.25 | 128 | 20.3%26 W · 102 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6032…f272backed Yes | 65c | 271.98$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…2cf2backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e80…3082backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f0e…bdf1backed Yes | 65c | 195.96$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 44c | 186.63$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.32 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed Yes | 48c | 184.97$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5704…37fabacked Yes | 69c | 184.13$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 35c | 154.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.84 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed No | 59c | 140.98$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 48c | 139$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57bd…cf55backed Yes | 59c | 130$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3103…ea70backed Yes | 52c | 108.08$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 45c | 105$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 46c | 101.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12e2…667cbacked Yes | 69c | 94.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 40c | 94.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 36c | 89.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…6645backed Yes | 58c | 82.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 38c | 82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.75 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa659…1eaabacked Yes | 66c | 79.02$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf065…c418backed Yes | 58c | 71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 38c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 54c | 68.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ce…da52backed Yes | 65c | 61.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 63c | 56.78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…e979backed Yes | 49c | 55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed No | 35c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…638abacked Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180a…8b0dbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4a…0ab5backed Yes | 65c | 46.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 31c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…fc4cbacked No | 49c | 40.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e9…d7f2backed Yes | 53c | 37.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43e7…f880backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca1…73f0backed Yes | 57c | 31.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfc…e607backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…e85cbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5332…3d88backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked Yes | 41c | 27.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +52%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcee…bda5backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 50c | 22.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x285d…c8e9backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add between 100k and 149k jobs in June?this page
- Will the US add 200k or more jobs in June?No won
- Will the US add between 150k and 199k jobs in June?No won
- Will the US add between 50k and 99k jobs in June?No won
- Will the US add less than 50k jobs in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.