Weather · resolved market
Megaquake by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7601b8e8c597583fb42c42792ac23b3e4ca3acf5ecd85bfba87d7a3e276c9d94
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $111,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 7c | 18,451$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.64 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 6c | 7,000$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.15 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1f…3de8backed Yes | 26c | 5,985$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,534.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 4,833$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.52 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 7c | 3,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 27cpaid | +407%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09e2…dd3abacked Yes | 5c | 2,623$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…6896backed Yes | 4c | 2,462$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 7c | 2,338$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.66 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,247$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 8c | 2,005$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.1 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 6c | 1,935$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.51 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 42c | 1,784$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.78 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +258.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0691…2814backed Yes | 79c | 1,445$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +282.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc79…fa6bbacked Yes | 35c | 1,403$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 7c | 1,250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…db32backed Yes | 2c | 1,245$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,221$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.69 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +97.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 1,089$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…63b2backed Yes | 8c | 1,063$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +371.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,052$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 60c | 1,000$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed Yes | 4c | 954.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 21c | 678$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.33 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…ce8bbacked Yes | 8c | 619.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 6c | 600$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed Yes | 38c | 577$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 5c | 500.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a8…6d0abacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +210%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca3…d3c8backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 460.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c1…9c35backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…6d0dbacked No | 77c | 382.34$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc53e…da94backed Yes | 9c | 330$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…4675backed Yes | 9c | 301$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 49c | 284.55$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 6c | 277.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7b…4f37backed Yes | 4c | 275$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cd…4620backed Yes | 9c | 270$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd690…ad2abacked Yes | 60c | 251.32$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d15…3d9cbacked Yes | 6c | 243.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Yes | 12c | 238.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…7c30backed Yes | 8c | 238.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +900.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x856c…727dbacked Yes | 8c | 236.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39df…644bbacked Yes | 7c | 230$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…5c8fbacked Yes | 7c | 228.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 70c | 223.99$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc48…7294backed Yes | 8c | 215.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3d…615ebacked Yes | 7c | 210$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 8c | 204.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…9ab7backed Yes | 7c | 171.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106f…1130backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 70c | 114.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 61c | 106.03$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.28 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.