Fed Rates · resolved market
ECB rate cut in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a44027c3caece9c511d5ba318a48f9943000db8c00d9bddc8ad137e0ff8df56
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $326,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $339,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $326,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 20c | 50,002$9,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,990.77 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 80c | 31,289$25,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,257.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdadf…b1edbacked Yes | 1c | 21,272$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.43 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1307…bd75backed Yes | 3c | 11,087$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0e…0b82backed Yes | 26c | 5,725$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 6c | 4,678$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.36 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 3,900$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4b…4214backed Yes | 5c | 2,759$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…b451backed Yes | 5c | 2,741$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d1…7274backed Yes | 10c | 2,496$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…adeabacked Yes | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,473$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…012dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,438$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,338$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1229…7432backed Yes | 24c | 820$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…28a5backed Yes | 3c | 623.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb188…f6a6backed Yes | 8c | 577.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c0…c7a3backed Yes | 6c | 462.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086d…fe29backed Yes | 21c | 430$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…1b78backed Yes | 32c | 425.84$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed Yes | 36c | 414.36$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.21 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 71c | 402.35$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.37 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe0…c9b4backed Yes | 16c | 397.72$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b30…84ccbacked Yes | 17c | 306.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9943…3360backed Yes | 12c | 270$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…8c16backed Yes | 17c | 235.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 8c | 232.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd842…d69bbacked Yes | 7c | 212.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 71c | 209.03$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…d1b5backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 12c | 166.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 8c | 158$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 45 | 2.2%1 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d98…3453backed Yes | 17c | 148.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cb…4dbcbacked No | 68c | 147.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 57c | 143.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…e2febacked Yes | 20c | 140$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 27c | 130.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb59…1e96backed No | 79c | 127.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff22…c02abacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…0e3abacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e3…1fe4backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 79c | 104$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x211e…35ddbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 26c | 98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked No | 62c | 96.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a0…d98bbacked Yes | 38c | 87.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…d4b3backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked No | 78c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a96…7f23backed Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa344…8141backed Yes | 30c | 72.29$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…d004backed Yes | 32c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 38c | 56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +461.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb54a…c622backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 76c | 55.47$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 52$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +6.1wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5e…64ddbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f9…9e5ebacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f1…0582backed No | 79c | 34.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x525e…bd81backed Yes | 58c | 34.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf8…8c19backed Yes | 46c | 23.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c0…4273backed Yes | 47c | 21.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 74c | 20.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.