MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x756657d9a78019bcacfa9729d1ea68226ae3417cc3297914027c1999bd14d7ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Chicago Cubs, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbce9…03e9backed Chicago Cubs | 0c | 10,164$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 8,605$3,872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,732.91 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 7,202$3,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,961.08 | 1,660 | 50.1%832 W · 828 L | -22.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 4,783$2,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,582.74 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 4,506$2,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,433.29 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 3,213$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.11 | 1,515 | 51.1%774 W · 741 L | +7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 2,400$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320.01 | 133 | 49.6%66 W · 67 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 2,172$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.72 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b49…0397backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 274 | 51.8%142 W · 132 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Chicago Cubs | 4c | 1,887$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 1,180$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.2 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Chicago Cubs | 54c | 600$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 579.17$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.02 | 707 | 35.1%248 W · 459 L | -31.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 496.23$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.93 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Cleveland Guardians | 23c | 489.6$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.81 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Chicago Cubs | 76c | 481.98$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.3 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 380.78$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.39 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…a39dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 245.08$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.35 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 240$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 398 | 50.3%200 W · 198 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.59 | 283 | 47.7%135 W · 148 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Chicago Cubs | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe292…84b8backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 200$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.31 | 1,402 | 43.1%604 W · 798 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.5wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba3…6c19backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 191.68$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked Chicago Cubs | 68c | 164.63$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.7 | 283 | 50.2%142 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 151.2$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 280 | 49.6%139 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a1…379abacked Chicago Cubs | 51c | 115.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 110.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.11 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…1953backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 105.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 104.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Chicago Cubs | 53c | 99.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 96.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.04 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 89.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 767 | 52.3%401 W · 366 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 84.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 71.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.97 | 293 | 52.9%155 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 67.23$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 62.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 62.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8268…8534backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 61.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 49.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 1,299 | 56.7%737 W · 562 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 44.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 354 | 46%163 W · 191 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 43.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 162 | 56.2%91 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8c…880abacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 41.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Chicago Cubs | 36c | 41.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Chicago Cubs | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 950 | 41.5%394 W · 556 L | -48.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…7ac1backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 39.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 209 | 51.7%108 W · 101 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Chicago Cubs | 52c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…1914backed Chicago Cubs | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 1,388 | 55.1%765 W · 623 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Chicago Cubs | 38c | 31.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Chicago Cubs | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…544bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 25.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa13f…0730backed Chicago Cubs | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Cleveland Guardians | 47c | 23.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 22.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Chicago Cubs | 72c | 22.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08fb…3659backed Chicago Cubs | 55c | 21.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardiansthis page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.