MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4baca36ef165c692230a4bdbbd53d96126272f8c65008306a7c495dd3adc3c1f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cdc…b83fbacked Over | 45c | 6,214$2,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,417.76 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 42cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 55c | 2,807$1,541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.54 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Over | 47c | 2,435$1,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,290.64 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…13aebacked Under | 55c | 2,214$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,211.16 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -45%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 52c | 1,262$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$656.01 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 46c | 647$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.38 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 55c | 646.07$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.34 | 244 | 50%122 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 600$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 54c | 571.75$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.59 | 323 | 48.9%158 W · 165 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 55c | 533.14$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.22 | 778 | 52.2%406 W · 372 L | +36.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 54c | 327.77$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.5wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 195.96$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.82 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Over | 46c | 193.52$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.5 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 54c | 151.49$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.8 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 140.63$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.34 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 54c | 69.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Under | 55c | 69.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 46c | 67.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 54c | 60.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52cb…4007backed Under | 55c | 43.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 55c | 38.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8c…880abacked Under | 55c | 35.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Under | 54c | 35.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 53c | 34.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Under | 55c | 24.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 55c | 19.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.