NFL · resolved market
Big Game - Winning Conference
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe59b76327e1738fa8f70d1cf718de431ea5b6cbb5b5bc1a0fc7ed2fe3a35d23f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- NFCof AFC, NFC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b9c…7e44backed NFC | 73c | 23,821$17,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,380.6 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed AFC | 32c | 18,983$6,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,074.64 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed AFC | 2c | 3,960$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked NFC | 70c | 2,310$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.62 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed AFC | 30c | 1,381$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.79 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed AFC | 31c | 1,301$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.06 | 284 | 36.3%103 W · 181 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5da4…e203backed NFC | 66c | 1,270$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.28 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed NFC | 64c | 952.33$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.18 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked AFC | 4c | 888.38$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed AFC | 26c | 839$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.26 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed AFC | 31c | 621.82$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.75 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed NFC | 68c | 496.4$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.29 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed AFC | 31c | 482.27$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.55 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…3be4backed AFC | 33c | 478.68$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69a1…379abacked AFC | 28c | 381.24$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.07 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed AFC | 36c | 320$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.27 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed NFC | 47c | 308.91$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.99 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked NFC | 71c | 289.28$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…c53fbacked AFC | 40c | 286.04$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c92…4744backed AFC | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed NFC | 68c | 248.3$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.86 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed NFC | 48c | 211.38$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.92 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5a…fa77backed AFC | 50c | 201.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…c706backed AFC | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed AFC | 53c | 189.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed AFC | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 290 | 59.7%173 W · 117 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked NFC | 58c | 180$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed AFC | 33c | 173$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 76 | 27.6%21 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed AFC | 42c | 170$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed NFC | 65c | 145.87$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579b…4a2bbacked NFC | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked AFC | 31c | 144.83$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked AFC | 34c | 142.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa67…4585backed NFC | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed NFC | 73c | 110.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727e…8b9dbacked AFC | 33c | 101.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked AFC | 43c | 101.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…644ebacked AFC | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…0f0ebacked AFC | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked NFC | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…5968backed NFC | 64c | 94.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…a497backed AFC | 32c | 88.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19dc…9accbacked NFC | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +107.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed NFC | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked AFC | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd46…8a23backed NFC | 69c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed AFC | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcba1…4643backed AFC | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…94f2backed AFC | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e4…ef6dbacked NFC | 59c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae9a…7ceabacked AFC | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed NFC | 66c | 48.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked NFC | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked NFC | 55c | 38.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…84f1backed NFC | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5643…1e21backed NFC | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…649cbacked AFC | 32c | 33.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3664…f267backed AFC | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked NFC | 47c | 31.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1a…e0eebacked NFC | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed NFC | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…5016backed NFC | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9b…1c56backed NFC | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf84f…7bc7backed NFC | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb11d…52b7backed NFC | 68c | 23.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe847…f8bdbacked NFC | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d36…06edbacked NFC | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…ea1dbacked NFC | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1419…6e6bbacked NFC | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12c8…0865backed NFC | 64c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5d1…8e8dbacked NFC | 63c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…e5d1backed NFC | 68c | 14.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.