NFL · resolved market
Will the team that wins the 2025-26 Super Bowl play in the NFC West?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b436d14d29b7f778768ffb123a526b4dc496054e26d820d691e9b59f2ae15bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,680
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 7,505$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 50c | 1,000$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.56 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3f…e00bbacked No | 32c | 1,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 70c | 393.08$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.15 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 66c | 301.45$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.45 | 91 | 36.3%33 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 291.15$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd93f…1e30backed Yes | 69c | 288.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.51 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed No | 31c | 256.66$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Yes | 74c | 238.78$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.55 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…a454backed Yes | 14c | 224.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.05 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 30c | 221.87$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Yes | 49c | 203.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.83 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…d5b8backed Yes | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 79c | 118.12$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +9.1wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 284 | 33.1%94 W · 190 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 41c | 98.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…b1dcbacked Yes | 54c | 92.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…3be4backed No | 32c | 83.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 26c | 67.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b79…a497backed No | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 41cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x727e…8b9dbacked Yes | 63c | 58.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9f…1981backed No | 29c | 55.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x126d…cb8cbacked Yes | 69c | 43.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 29c | 42.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…e198backed Yes | 74c | 38.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…d534backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55fc…57cabacked Yes | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the team that wins the 2025-26 Super Bowl play in the NFC West?this page
- Will the team that wins the 2025-26 Super Bowl play in the AFC East?No won
- Will the team that wins the 2025-26 Super Bowl play in the AFC North?No won
- Will the team that wins the 2025-26 Super Bowl play in the AFC West?No won
- Will the team that wins the 2025-26 Super Bowl play in the NFC East?No won
- Will the team that wins the 2025-26 Super Bowl play in the NFC North?No won
- Will the team that wins the 2025-26 Super Bowl play in the NFC South?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.