TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

World Chess Championship - Game 3

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Gukeshof Ding, Gukesh
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,815
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$107,719

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,815 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa4b4…6ab9backed Ding53c17,552$9,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,290.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd49e…8541backed Gukesh50c16,759$8,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,412.53100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+68.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a80…e4b3backed Ding28c9,327$2,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,597.3960%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Ding44c8,297$3,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,651.7812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick31cpaid-26.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd69…a2e1backed Gukesh66c7,505$4,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,581.711346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfda…bedebacked Gukesh58c5,852$3,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,457.951770.6%12 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+148.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Gukesh59c5,504$3,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,231.81752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick36cpaid+47.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3a86…4805backed Ding10c4,345$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.521233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-50.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a67…dc7cbacked Ding34c3,238$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.522020%4 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-39.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Ding42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.999247.8%44 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed Gukesh51c1,972$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.51553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94e5…6cfebacked Ding41c1,463$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.941428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-59.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7e30…1e50backed Ding43c1,407$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.371127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-60.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Ding42c1,310$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.18540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73b7…9360backed Gukesh67c1,128$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.231145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Gukesh56c1,100$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.652835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-45.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Ding6c1,091$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.33119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+222.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Ding23c1,058$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.530%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Ding8c1,032$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.711011.8%13 W · 97 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed Gukesh77c1,000$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc254…f755backed Ding10c933.9$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed Gukesh55c880$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf2d…673fbacked Gukesh69c865.71$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.88560%3 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick71cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Ding42c755.47$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.34032.5%13 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee57…6ee4backed Ding9c666.67$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-51.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa447…f2e1backed Gukesh58c665.88$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c4b…f1e6backed Ding49c615.22$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e37…f83bbacked Gukesh52c599.99$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.79520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-61.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4440…5f67backed Ding44c519.99$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.9540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-41.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc725…34e7backed Gukesh71c510.99$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.991136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-37.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc201…1c9ebacked Gukesh59c505.59$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.591225%3 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-53.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb86b…6bdebacked Ding37c503.83$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0851…db2ebacked Ding10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-43.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked Ding7c499.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35128.3%1 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick35cpaid-87.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Ding42c427.33$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.4880%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34c9…7dc6backed Ding10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.51136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5bd…bae5backed Ding43c359.95$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bea…2becbacked Ding6c355.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6753…7340backed Gukesh57c349.98$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.492045%9 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick36cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8924…ab27backed Ding58c345.81$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.430%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x091f…d1b2backed Gukesh62c322.27$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.37520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-67.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e8b…3d8abacked Gukesh61c322.15$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.75944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb51b…06b7backed Ding43c302.33$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13060%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36a6…52c7backed Ding21c256.25$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.51020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-41.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Gukesh59c250$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.841637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1802…a3afbacked Ding12c229.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.61816.7%3 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Gukesh55c217.56$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.93348.5%16 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Gukesh59c209.9$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9dd…dd3abacked Ding8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1cc…93e2backed Ding42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed Ding43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid+341.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e0…f11cbacked Ding8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf534…b055backed Ding43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8640%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc822…c185backed Ding43c200$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8bd…9686backed Ding39c183.68$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x452c…a2d0backed Ding42c180.95$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed Ding43c175$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.25333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e80…9eadbacked Gukesh58c175$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.51533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+30.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Ding42c172.41$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95d9…0f2cbacked Ding32c171.28$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3688…9b7dbacked Gukesh59c169.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Ding43c160$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Ding45c156.09$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.57767.9%6 W · 70 L-12.3wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-66.8%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1f13…e5d9backed Ding44c155.53$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.970%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3214…9a20backed Gukesh70c145.76$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.74475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed Gukesh70c129.4$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.121741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+120.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e6b…a799backed Ding46c108.7$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501275%9 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+35.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c3c…8306backed Ding44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd42c…3913backed Ding44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7919…21c9backed Ding43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x893d…6b68backed Ding45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4550%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x09b3…cb73backed Gukesh56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92fc…1134backed Gukesh57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1180…bfd5backed Gukesh80c83.81$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.81540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42c1…c0c4backed Ding19c83.04$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.741540%6 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2452…4571backed Gukesh66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.76560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4de9…4ab1backed Ding41c74.97$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.74616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-72.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ce3…f779backed Ding42c64.68$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.171861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked Gukesh64c50.96$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.351421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.20per pick41cpaid-1.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x97d3…3f3cbacked Gukesh79c50.65$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.883070%21 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+27.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9001…feacbacked Ding44c45.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaad5…3666backed Ding45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb220…5f71backed Gukesh59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31f6…edf1backed Ding43c38.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd160…8a16backed Ding35c37.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.162352.2%12 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Ding44c35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e09…fd64backed Gukesh59c32.42$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Gukesh55c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+152.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xddc6…03c5backed Ding42c26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9f…3452backed Ding43c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1545…e2b2backed Ding40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f8…b372backed Ding42c23.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.