Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex de Minaur
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcade211601159f732cef7c1028fe43f77d4025cdef388bbe6b393a115a985b24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minaurof Tiafoe, Minaur
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $322,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $387,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $322,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Tiafoe | 7c | 58,834$4,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,300.34 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d894backed Tiafoe | 17c | 55,426$9,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,422.49 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Tiafoe | 20c | 11,010$2,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,193.68 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa051…54ebbacked Tiafoe | 18c | 8,889$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tiafoe | 6c | 8,796$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.24 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Minaur | 79c | 8,000$6,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,680 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tiafoe | 3c | 7,487$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.9 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf84e…6cbebacked Tiafoe | 11c | 3,749$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.96 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac53…6133backed Tiafoe | 17c | 2,940$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0c…218abacked Tiafoe | 7c | 2,912$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 541 | 38.1%206 W · 335 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Tiafoe | 16c | 2,794$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.4 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Tiafoe | 14c | 2,342$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.69 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Minaur | 78c | 2,266$1,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.52 | 192 | 41.1%79 W · 113 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Tiafoe | 2c | 2,163$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Tiafoe | 19c | 2,000$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Tiafoe | 21c | 1,946$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.91 | 313 | 32.3%101 W · 212 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Tiafoe | 3c | 1,799$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Tiafoe | 18c | 1,635$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Tiafoe | 18c | 1,573$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.17 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9ce7backed Tiafoe | 18c | 1,289$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…e89abacked Tiafoe | 18c | 1,226$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Tiafoe | 18c | 1,178$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.1 | 139 | 34.5%48 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x724b…e780backed Tiafoe | 21c | 1,050$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbce5…02f1backed Tiafoe | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Tiafoe | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Tiafoe | 16c | 988$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.08 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Tiafoe | 23c | 932.85$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.52 | 190 | 23.2%44 W · 146 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Tiafoe | 10c | 912.14$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.76 | 140 | 28.6%40 W · 100 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d07…0351backed Tiafoe | 18c | 888.89$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…9d85backed Tiafoe | 2c | 864.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca4…e4e7backed Tiafoe | 7c | 863.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Tiafoe | 2c | 833.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c03…811ebacked Tiafoe | 18c | 777.78$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Tiafoe | 3c | 750$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Tiafoe | 19c | 635.07$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.26 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed Tiafoe | 18c | 621.95$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.95 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da6…59fabacked Tiafoe | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc8…4d6fbacked Tiafoe | 8c | 528.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9266…8f3cbacked Tiafoe | 5c | 527.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Tiafoe | 16c | 509$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fb…4442backed Tiafoe | 21c | 505$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Tiafoe | 17c | 503.12$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.44 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…c18cbacked Tiafoe | 20c | 501.19$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.19 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Tiafoe | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…5aeebacked Tiafoe | 5c | 380$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Tiafoe | 17c | 325$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.55 | 1,029 | 33.5%345 W · 684 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cc…769cbacked Tiafoe | 11c | 311.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Tiafoe | 17c | 298.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Tiafoe | 6c | 298$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Tiafoe | 4c | 291.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Tiafoe | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fa…f25ebacked Tiafoe | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 40.4%72 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1396…8d89backed Tiafoe | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Tiafoe | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 285 | 43.5%124 W · 161 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Tiafoe | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…4432backed Tiafoe | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e39…ec6bbacked Minaur | 80c | 187.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dab…4522backed Tiafoe | 17c | 175.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Tiafoe | 18c | 169$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Tiafoe | 17c | 147.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96a7…a2f0backed Tiafoe | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Tiafoe | 10c | 124.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3e…986abacked Tiafoe | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9497…bd20backed Tiafoe | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8985…2e25backed Tiafoe | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…55f8backed Tiafoe | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Tiafoe | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Tiafoe | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…1425backed Tiafoe | 18c | 94.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2439…c2acbacked Tiafoe | 17c | 88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Tiafoe | 18c | 86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 602 | 40.5%244 W · 358 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…a830backed Tiafoe | 24c | 83.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 24.5%27 W · 83 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…5f71backed Tiafoe | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Tiafoe | 16c | 77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Tiafoe | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ad…44febacked Tiafoe | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Tiafoe | 18c | 72.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 530 | 58.1%308 W · 222 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae0…910cbacked Minaur | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Minaur | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Men's: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex de Minaurthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs MinaurMinaur won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)Minaur won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-2.5) vs Tiafoe (+2.5)Minaur won
- Tiafoe vs. Minaur: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Tiafoe vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.