Tennis · resolved market
Tiafoe vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf47b62e86a72d5d1a7e4b92fa66bce6e26a4fd1009e8b0697c5fba8b46fe36bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over 3.5 | 56c | 4,599$2,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,581.94 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Under 3.5 | 43c | 4,438$1,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,513.72 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +6.0wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8046…a845backed Under 3.5 | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over 3.5 | 57c | 926.49$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.1 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…f5fcbacked Under 3.5 | 43c | 403.9$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Over 3.5 | 59c | 133.9$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…ce1cbacked Over 3.5 | 14c | 105.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -72%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…612ebacked Over 3.5 | 63c | 88.66$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1157…dd01backed Over 3.5 | 63c | 71.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf19b…bf9fbacked Over 3.5 | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +186.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd18b…1e04backed Over 3.5 | 62c | 54.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under 3.5 | 37c | 50.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a1…64a3backed Under 3.5 | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over 3.5 | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…a000backed Under 3.5 | 42c | 34.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Over 3.5 | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tiafoe vs. Minaur: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Australian Open Men's: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex de MinaurMinaur won
- Set 1 Winner: Tiafoe vs MinaurMinaur won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5)Minaur won
- Set Handicap: Minaur (-2.5) vs Tiafoe (+2.5)Minaur won
- Tiafoe vs. Minaur: Match O/U 36.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.