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Tennis · resolved market

Australian Open Men's: Jakub Mensik vs Pablo Carreno Busta

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Mensikof Mensik, Busta
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$104,186
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$116,043

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,186 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Busta20c11,998$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.5476140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Mensik67c10,394$7,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,390.1411,77943.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L+20.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x979f…4032backed Mensik79c10,000$7,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,070.2210162.4%63 W · 38 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7690…74e1backed Mensik80c7,158$5,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,431.53574.3%26 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Busta41c5,132$2,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,091.386,79836.9%2,507 W · 4,291 L-98.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa9…c100backed Busta21c5,000$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.9943051.2%220 W · 210 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Mensik49c4,499$2,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,303.0859151.6%305 W · 286 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x046c…2a9cbacked Busta59c4,283$2,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,544.0835247.2%166 W · 186 L-23.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Busta46c4,235$1,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,956.397,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d30…b2b3backed Busta30c2,968$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.41040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Busta21c2,944$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.218047.2%85 W · 95 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Mensik49c1,956$952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.342,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15fe…86bebacked Busta40c1,783$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.155444.4%24 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Busta49c1,643$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.22,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mensik77c1,613$1,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.38,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Busta23c1,409$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.219023.2%44 W · 146 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Mensik28c1,259$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.761,44848.8%707 W · 741 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Busta13c1,250$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.5614129.1%41 W · 100 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Busta35c1,208$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.962,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99fc…ec26backed Mensik34c1,176$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.4765439.9%261 W · 393 L-21.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Busta22c1,044$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.162,49251.3%1,279 W · 1,213 L+15.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Mensik78c1,000$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.8894555.7%526 W · 419 L+22.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Busta22c921.14$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.2327944.1%123 W · 156 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e78…52b5backed Busta60c700.57$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4179348.4%45 W · 48 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Busta14c697.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10028322.3%63 W · 220 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Busta42c684.33$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.391,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Busta33c680.12$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.942,06834.9%721 W · 1,347 L-44.2wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba4f…7ecebacked Mensik80c625.11$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.028159.3%48 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf788…6f86backed Mensik80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002245.5%10 W · 12 L-4.2wins-0.19per pick64cpaid-29.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Busta22c488.6$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.491,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1660…9d86backed Mensik41c463.27$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.388964%57 W · 32 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3be6…05b1backed Busta67c450.43$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009955.6%55 W · 44 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad8…9bc1backed Mensik70c410.77$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.3513834.1%47 W · 91 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-42.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d64…5c93backed Busta74c406.95$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.8913653.7%73 W · 63 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9cd…432cbacked Mensik18c400$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.145457.4%31 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Mensik39c399.61$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.622,15354.1%1,165 W · 988 L-2.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff79…9b53backed Mensik67c398.15$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.071478.6%11 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+21.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Mensik79c352$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9291350.2%458 W · 455 L-21.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Busta37c351.24$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.092,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3e…b2b0backed Mensik80c331.25$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.25475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Mensik58c284.03$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.5588455%486 W · 398 L+37.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7bf…b02dbacked Mensik79c253.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1659165.3%386 W · 205 L-16.9wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Mensik72c252.58$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.682,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6456…60e2backed Busta16c250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.364010%4 W · 36 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-80%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe889…d0c3backed Mensik33c242.42$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.4217432.2%56 W · 118 L-15.1wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Mensik34c235.47$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.4759359.2%351 W · 242 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffa…f2cfbacked Mensik68c217.65$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.57041.4%29 W · 41 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Busta21c206.63$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8543243.1%186 W · 246 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc669…53eabacked Mensik78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447266.7%48 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf819…d410backed Mensik40c197.9$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.745658.9%33 W · 23 L+4.5wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+18.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x935b…a5cebacked Mensik79c190.49$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404551.1%23 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfe6…61bdbacked Mensik79c189.87$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8711347.8%54 W · 59 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf575…e0ebbacked Busta29c183.31$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.9320431.9%65 W · 139 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb878…e3e2backed Busta63c158.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Busta14c152.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.121,10641%454 W · 652 L+2.5wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bfa…a8debacked Mensik37c148.06$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.7935951.3%184 W · 175 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8bd…df80backed Mensik30c137.5$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.522744.5%101 W · 126 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Mensik78c128.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.461,05655.4%585 W · 471 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…5bc2backed Mensik78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.214245.2%19 W · 23 L-5.3wins-0.13per pick58cpaid+18.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ff9…e494backed Busta26c127.22$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3336040%144 W · 216 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca72…f482backed Mensik79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.583100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e07…6a8ebacked Mensik79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.589144%40 W · 51 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-16.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Busta41c124.77$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.088645.3%39 W · 47 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Busta51c119$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6940141.9%168 W · 233 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Busta18c118.61$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8228139.1%110 W · 171 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-28.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d4…6297backed Mensik76c110$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3716144.7%72 W · 89 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8104…3128backed Mensik67c106.83$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.425944.1%26 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6b8…6f30backed Busta17c104.73$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.38728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick17cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked Busta20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205232.7%17 W · 35 L-6.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-35.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb583…3428backed Mensik44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565554.5%30 W · 25 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c68…c9b3backed Mensik64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+71.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf46e…db14backed Mensik80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2018863.8%120 W · 68 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ae9…facabacked Mensik79c95.06$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9619856.1%111 W · 87 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Busta16c93.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1512846.9%60 W · 68 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd29b…b518backed Mensik40c92.5$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.510843.5%47 W · 61 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca39…4ed7backed Mensik52c92.25$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.2814060.7%85 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc688…5987backed Mensik36c90.6$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.969744.3%43 W · 54 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2b…e91bbacked Mensik80c83.85$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick69cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a44…26b0backed Mensik80c82.19$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a0…a986backed Mensik62c80.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0210965.1%71 W · 38 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Mensik47c79.4$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.081,25850%629 W · 629 L-4.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f8f…8ed0backed Busta26c76.92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf0d…2bf7backed Busta27c73.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5560%0 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb78a…61c4backed Mensik80c70$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1415364.1%98 W · 55 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb1…65a4backed Mensik77c64.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.941283.3%10 W · 2 L+3.8wins+0.32per pick52cpaid+59.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2a73…c2e5backed Mensik79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2930053.3%160 W · 140 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x176e…8f96backed Mensik80c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1217863.5%113 W · 65 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ddf…c9a6backed Mensik80c58.13$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.633281.3%26 W · 6 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick66cpaid+27.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Mensik78c58.03$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.54050%20 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x727d…1589backed Mensik71c53.75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.414947.7%71 W · 78 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Mensik39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.281,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e25…db26backed Mensik59c50.85$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.8584260.9%513 W · 329 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Busta56c50.36$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2193048.8%454 W · 476 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2db8…e042backed Mensik80c50.15$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0375161.8%464 W · 287 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x262d…33ddbacked Mensik80c50.06$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0621263.7%135 W · 77 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e5…18f4backed Mensik80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103868.4%26 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick73cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Busta23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51,21233.1%401 W · 811 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2064…0ab1backed Mensik65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.540843.6%178 W · 230 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc55…3f46backed Mensik77c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.55074%37 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+16.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Busta23c49.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4831434.4%108 W · 206 L-25.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.