TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs DRX (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
DRXof Gen.G Esports, DRX
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$264,047
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$289,016

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $264,047 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 251 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Gen.G Esports33c62,724$20,398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,397.997236.1%26 W · 46 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-20.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee8e…0a7bbacked DRX68c30,715$20,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,841.5578162%484 W · 297 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed DRX67c26,100$17,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,613.132020%4 W · 16 L-6.2wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-60.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x3c3f…75cfbacked DRX61c24,629$15,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,626.3913651.5%70 W · 66 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd888…3c9fbacked DRX70c13,039$9,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,939.712155.4%67 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Gen.G Esports34c10,000$3,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,399.9654751.2%280 W · 267 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Gen.G Esports33c8,397$2,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,770.851050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Gen.G Esports38c7,577$2,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,853.059844.9%44 W · 54 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Gen.G Esports32c5,908$1,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,905.9428541.1%117 W · 168 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Gen.G Esports35c5,250$1,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,852.524946.2%115 W · 134 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Gen.G Esports39c4,586$1,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,780.9328747.4%136 W · 151 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked DRX67c3,856$2,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,272.5231153.1%165 W · 146 L+15.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ea1…d143backed DRX71c3,691$2,619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.582676.9%20 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.15per pick62cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7cee…b72abacked DRX67c3,510$2,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,161.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed DRX67c3,431$2,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.1393148.1%448 W · 483 L-11.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked DRX65c3,182$2,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.8533153.5%177 W · 154 L-0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41bb…26e8backed DRX64c3,053$1,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,096.123450%17 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcc…9f91backed Gen.G Esports44c2,719$1,191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.6260022.7%136 W · 464 L-26.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Gen.G Esports32c2,616$849 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.4341537.1%154 W · 261 L-26.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9e4…24c2backed Gen.G Esports39c2,530$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.962060%12 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Gen.G Esports41c2,524$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.342540.5%172 W · 253 L-22.7wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x085e…9aeabacked DRX60c2,499$1,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.52860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed DRX69c2,493$1,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.183060%18 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked DRX65c2,424$1,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.596946.4%32 W · 37 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf33…0353backed DRX57c2,405$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.7833346.5%155 W · 178 L-10.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Gen.G Esports30c2,341$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.1626634.6%92 W · 174 L-13.9wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51f9…26f8backed DRX67c2,332$1,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd1f…2bd0backed Gen.G Esports35c2,250$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.51338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e3…770ebacked DRX66c2,243$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.511435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-48.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2aa5…ff32backed Gen.G Esports37c1,900$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70420840.9%85 W · 123 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x95a9…4352backed DRX66c1,787$1,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.432050%10 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Gen.G Esports38c1,682$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.6930835.4%109 W · 199 L-23.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x115f…e217backed Gen.G Esports33c1,500$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49590%0 W · 9 L-4.2wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Gen.G Esports36c1,494$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.7726738.2%102 W · 165 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Gen.G Esports34c1,479$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.8135142.5%149 W · 202 L-14.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Gen.G Esports40c1,409$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.5526932.3%87 W · 182 L-25.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-42.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf057…1b73backed Gen.G Esports25c1,392$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7e8…4f4bbacked DRX43c1,371$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.728950.6%45 W · 44 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Gen.G Esports37c1,321$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.4770251.3%360 W · 342 L+7.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2814…2941backed Gen.G Esports39c1,200$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+39%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17cd…7423backed Gen.G Esports38c1,131$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.6912138.8%47 W · 74 L-8.3wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Gen.G Esports1c1,099$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.99701.4%1 W · 69 L0.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8a…76a2backed Gen.G Esports37c1,092$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.122147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Gen.G Esports37c1,048$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.8434857.5%200 W · 148 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x329c…2485backed Gen.G Esports39c1,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3903633.3%12 W · 24 L-6.7wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-29.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8c14…d8fbbacked DRX66c979.6$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.065162.7%32 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed DRX53c917.84$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.0419847%93 W · 105 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Gen.G Esports40c910.04$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361.3825336.4%92 W · 161 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd31…8004backed DRX46c894.01$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.4922047.7%105 W · 115 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1eb…583fbacked Gen.G Esports35c872.61$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf04…ad65backed DRX65c850.68$552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.0828541.1%117 W · 168 L-26.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x7d43…ce68backed Gen.G Esports38c843.72$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.616445.3%29 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf6a…1ddbbacked DRX66c819.93$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.771136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a83…f94dbacked Gen.G Esports39c800$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-63.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Gen.G Esports40c800$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3207655.3%42 W · 34 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96bb…f0fabacked DRX58c748.59$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.332462.5%15 W · 9 L+4.5wins+0.19per pick44cpaid+39%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf9b…2013backed Gen.G Esports35c746.89$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.4118735.3%66 W · 121 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Gen.G Esports39c738.99$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.214630.4%14 W · 32 L-7.1wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-42.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Gen.G Esports38c732.25$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.8396245.1%434 W · 528 L-18.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d91…c930backed Gen.G Esports60c718.51$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.5521257.1%121 W · 91 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x900e…beb0backed Gen.G Esports29c704.82$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.431346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick30cpaid+54.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc866…8c6dbacked Gen.G Esports34c704.22$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.4916442.1%69 W · 95 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked DRX67c693.7$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.9211458.8%67 W · 47 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Gen.G Esports37c681.34$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.115843%68 W · 90 L-12.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed Gen.G Esports30c673.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.866725.4%17 W · 50 L-6.6wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-49.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Gen.G Esports34c650.07$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.0228541.1%117 W · 168 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b8e…a05fbacked DRX55c625.68$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.65580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+42.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Gen.G Esports3c621.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.93521.9%1 W · 51 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-61.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked Gen.G Esports37c618.23$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.7429733.3%99 W · 198 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Gen.G Esports37c616.84$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.7141835.6%149 W · 269 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-32.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7c0…f389backed DRX46c599.99$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.995232.7%17 W · 35 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b02…7939backed Gen.G Esports36c589.83$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.3460%0 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5887…994ebacked Gen.G Esports33c581.79$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.599346.2%43 W · 50 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed DRX64c579.21$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.5215942.1%67 W · 92 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcddb…0d22backed DRX67c578.77$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.991764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick60cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5f…3492backed DRX62c561.26$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.5734253.2%182 W · 160 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82bf…de71backed Gen.G Esports45c557.39$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.6325752.1%134 W · 123 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf84e…6cbebacked Gen.G Esports38c538.45$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.612050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed Gen.G Esports33c534.29$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.27433.8%25 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x317f…3a7abacked DRX63c507.19$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.4114747.6%70 W · 77 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Gen.G Esports36c506.69$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.0716842.3%71 W · 97 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x172d…36cabacked Gen.G Esports35c500$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9ae…b741backed Gen.G Esports39c500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-43.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x70db…f73fbacked Gen.G Esports40c499.98$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.994641.3%19 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Gen.G Esports37c498.23$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.3516639.2%65 W · 101 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-16.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Gen.G Esports44c488.84$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.224736.2%17 W · 30 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Gen.G Esports38c481.4$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.935635.7%20 W · 36 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-27.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0547…563ebacked Gen.G Esports38c481.4$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.932835.7%10 W · 18 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x20bf…2be9backed Gen.G Esports57c462.71$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.382650%13 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa903…bcd2backed Gen.G Esports42c460.36$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.032263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+43.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked DRX58c458.63$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.6261035.9%219 W · 391 L-17.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed DRX59c456.51$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.31,49046.6%695 W · 795 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c1f…f0e3backed Gen.G Esports50c429.48$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.49911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-76.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xce42…5cddbacked Gen.G Esports62c417.67$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.965856.9%33 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc662…2accbacked Gen.G Esports38c400$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f01…0d90backed Gen.G Esports38c400$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1522326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.2wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc793…f66fbacked DRX55c399.16$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.67955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+32%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c4b…8a81backed Gen.G Esports67c390.35$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.5662156.4%350 W · 271 L+13.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Gen.G Esports33c382.9$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.6674642.8%319 W · 427 L-27.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28af…7de0backed Gen.G Esports22c377.6$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.061060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.