TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Putin visit China by May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$923,260
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$866,595

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $923,260 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 297 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc570…8c3bbacked No0c58,115$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfde6…7ed6backed No1c31,390$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.43724.3%9 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-49.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ac…8669backed No0c22,922$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68e2…30acbacked No0c22,067$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1232…6158backed No0c21,104$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeea…3507backed No0c20,577$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4990…d300backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+21.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b4…946dbacked No0c16,099$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ef6…fdcdbacked No0c15,956$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a00…9252backed No10c15,713$1,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,515.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa69d…2d3bbacked No0c13,952$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed No0c12,505$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2190%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56c2…6219backed No0c11,313$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46a1…2736backed No0c11,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172560%15 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+50.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9589…39b0backed No1c11,000$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5930%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6e0…1120backed No0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f23…90dbbacked No0c9,998$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick19cpaid+164.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No1c9,859$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.81631.6%1 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81a3…de4abacked No0c8,050$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a75…ff13backed No0c7,998$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6043…84afbacked No14c7,694$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,068.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f6f…e536backed No0c7,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e2d…2b55backed No0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74a4…cde3backed No0c5,678$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c31…0cf9backed No0c5,550$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe001…13c1backed No1c5,212$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No2c5,056$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.89432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bc8…6938backed No0c5,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb12d…26d1backed No6c4,730$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.32911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No0c4,463$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.392119%4 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-64.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ec…99a4backed No22c4,220$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3732…43acbacked No17c3,759$647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.6650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+128.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6d1…f7abbacked No0c3,580$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e6f…d1fdbacked No1c3,417$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce6…49c8backed No3c3,333$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No8c3,005$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.383912.8%5 W · 34 L-5.2wins-0.13per pick26cpaid-68.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed No25c3,000$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7483030%9 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c3c…5eeabacked Yes64c2,753$1,769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.453943.6%17 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No2c2,735$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.791302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x49b3…6486backed No19c2,500$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4751154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No3c2,490$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.061074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ee7…17b0backed No9c2,161$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.49922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x615f…5f37backed No1c2,100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No20c2,000$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39726835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No12c1,740$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.8530837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf030…27bfbacked No2c1,685$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.961822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-50.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf59d…bb41backed No33c1,638$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.562552%13 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x63e3…86e3backed No17c1,585$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7841…7273backed No10c1,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a81…d324backed No14c1,463$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-66.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes70c1,433$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.947518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54f0…8a13backed No5c1,393$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+146.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb4d…f155backed No11c1,364$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4873…b9c2backed No22c1,331$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.96862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.35per pick27cpaid+332.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9182…3368backed No14c1,317$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd76d…9457backed No2c1,308$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcca9…4c9fbacked No7c1,250$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x723c…01ebbacked No18c1,177$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-59.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x73ff…c537backed No24c1,131$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…4216backed No25c1,095$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.631060%6 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No15c1,083$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.0112937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No9c1,061$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.25327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2dc…ee15backed No33c1,041$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No23c1,014$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.842437.5%9 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick29cpaid-29.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94df…2dcebacked No20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick25cpaid+592.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28b9…a995backed Yes75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No10c938.23$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.376547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x924c…6db2backed Yes79c932.41$739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed No14c906.99$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.21127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick19cpaid-48.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked No20c900$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1804942.9%21 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb9e…11d4backed No2c863.37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-46.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03af…849dbacked Yes78c803.99$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ff2…68a2backed Yes79c800.89$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.71333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick73cpaid-58%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6c7…8366backed No14c737.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e89…9a0bbacked No7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed No25c673.64$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.97650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+38.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1907…8174backed No13c665.99$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa39d…4abcbacked No11c633.18$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ec9…cf38backed No9c632.91$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x730b…d50abacked No9c624.26$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedb2…3637backed No9c595.2$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked No20c576.48$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.294348.8%21 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No23c556.44$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1309734%33 W · 64 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No20c550$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11035341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2eae…a25fbacked No15c541.98$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked No14c540.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.84560%3 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick23cpaid+392.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x767a…6e8cbacked No37c539.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf35b…400abacked No14c526.29$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a3b…3d4abacked No10c510.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ba8…1ffabacked No4c455.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc901…0c1dbacked No11c451.12$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.321346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No28c450$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1266225.8%16 W · 46 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f8d…cf69backed No22c449.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc93f…445dbacked No3c427.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b35…4f31backed No9c426$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked No10c421.95$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.9110426%27 W · 77 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa7c7…985cbacked No18c412.8$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.6210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6062…dec2backed Yes75c400.18$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed No17c400$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-60%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x54f5…9093backed No3c400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.