Weather · resolved market
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7022143bb54f6c9efa4093753caae9bef8da36e329e92ca563d03988c849af1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 57c | 433.93$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.65 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…875dbacked Yes | 39c | 423.12$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.7 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 233.97$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.86 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…2c2ebacked Yes | 56c | 178.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfb…3990backed Yes | 49c | 131.23$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 46c | 120.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac07…7156backed Yes | 53c | 109$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a69…228fbacked No | 67c | 97.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…100cbacked Yes | 29c | 88.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed No | 46c | 70.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked No | 66c | 67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 64c | 62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…2900backed No | 62c | 58.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 57.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 43c | 52.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 58c | 47.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 62c | 46.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 41c | 44.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 35c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 50c | 38.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcae…57aabacked Yes | 53c | 37.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63cf…d155backed No | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 66c | 28.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 24.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 65c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…2ab7backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +5.5wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…5f71backed No | 67c | 15.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?this page
- Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?No won
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 25 - 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.