TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Atlanta Falcons make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,092
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,199

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,092 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes10c2,237$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.992015%3 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb35b…fc08backed Yes7c2,098$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.2517823%41 W · 137 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No60c2,036$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.3824738.1%94 W · 153 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a2…6af8backed Yes40c2,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80012570.4%88 W · 37 L+12.8wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+15.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes30c1,881$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.9719638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed No69c1,688$1,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.5922434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes7c491.02$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.74454.4%2 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-69.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked No21c485.41$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.7113751.8%71 W · 66 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a0f…4cbdbacked Yes9c333.78$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30419.8%4 W · 37 L-4.4wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-70.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes7c333.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9517.8%4 W · 47 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-67.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a5e…c869backed No47c310$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.2411738.5%45 W · 72 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c250$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1952828.6%151 W · 377 L+1.8wins0.00per pick28cpaid-27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x224b…f6b8backed Yes55c250$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1381241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-44.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2214…5968backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.753844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No16c240$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.28760.9%53 W · 34 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03cb…4bf9backed Yes46c220$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.591553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+41.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e8c…e69dbacked No57c120$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.61250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No46c108.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2926830.6%82 W · 186 L-29.2wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-43.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015332%49 W · 104 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed No14c99.54$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.6911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2ae…2a5fbacked Yes78c90$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.23745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.11631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb220…5f71backed Yes38c55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.793231.3%10 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-27.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x38d5…063cbacked Yes48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.831957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed No73c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6624351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed Yes28c49.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.037546.7%35 W · 40 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1ec…a957backed Yes40c45.05$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x415c…3c94backed Yes29c35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.314926.5%13 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xef34…1d61backed Yes65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.514158.9%83 W · 58 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe87a…6d01backed Yes71c24.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.336428.1%18 W · 46 L-12.6wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-53.1%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes76c20$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.21656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+46.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5464…be5ebacked No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.27per pick39cpaid-82.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.