NFL · resolved market
Will the San Francisco 49ers make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaea240a989240ee22e5ac8e59fd4b63d675096399d18f7f100ba819b04736e05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 0c | 27,022$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12a7…399bbacked Yes | 20c | 25,036$5,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,016.18 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -65%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 77c | 4,170$3,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.68 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5e…c869backed No | 78c | 2,909$2,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.93 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,904$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 243 | 0.8%2 W · 241 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed No | 68c | 2,441$1,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.43 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 62c | 2,434$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.45 | 247 | 38.1%94 W · 153 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf0…1179backed No | 41c | 1,290$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.4 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3e…b956backed No | 77c | 749.99$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 45c | 664.77$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.46 | 120 | 22.5%27 W · 93 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 614.26$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.01 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 59c | 529.01$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 55c | 420$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.64 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 35c | 270$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.67 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e5…316dbacked Yes | 63c | 131.5$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 16c | 101.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 67c | 78.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 141 | 58.9%83 W · 58 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…39f5backed No | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…e65fbacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Yes | 17c | 68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa823…851fbacked Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c56…2845backed No | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked No | 66c | 46.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…a2cdbacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 73c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +135.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 61c | 35.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef94…502ebacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the San Francisco 49ers make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?this page
- Will the Arizona Cardinals make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?No won
- Will the Atlanta Falcons make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?No won
- Will the Baltimore Ravens make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Buffalo Bills make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Chicago Bears make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?No won
- Will the Cincinnati Bengals make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?No won
- Will the Dallas Cowboys make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?No won
- Will the Denver Broncos make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Detroit Lions make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Green Bay Packers make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Houston Texans make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Indianapolis Colts make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?No won
- Will the Kansas City Chiefs make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Los Angeles Chargers make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Los Angeles Rams make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Miami Dolphins make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?No won
- Will the Minnesota Vikings make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the New York Jets make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?No won
- Will the Philadelphia Eagles make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Pittsburgh Steelers make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Seattle Seahawks make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?No won
- Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?Yes won
- Will the Washington Commanders make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.