TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Will the Washington Commanders make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,141
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,547

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,141 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe6a2…6af8backed Yes71c2,647$1,881 inWon+$765.6412570.4%88 W · 37 L+12.8wins+0.10per pick60cpaid+15.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed No18c2,311$426 inLost-$425.928337.8%107 W · 176 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No19c1,817$350 inLost-$350.3719638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed No20c1,643$336 inLost-$33622434.4%77 W · 147 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-19.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed No30c980$294 inLost-$2941625%4 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No14c938.49$127 inLost-$126.821809.4%17 W · 163 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-59.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes77c638.89$489 inWon+$15012022.5%27 W · 93 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed No15c500$77 inLost-$772015%3 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-65.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes75c139.45$104 inWon+$35.3341540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe87f…9d9bbacked No36c138.89$50 inLost-$505028%14 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed No22c100$22 inLost-$2215332%49 W · 104 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed No19c100$19 inLost-$18.5911.1%1 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes78c20$16 inWon+$4.413751.8%71 W · 66 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.