Weather · resolved market
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x703e2a07d9a0bb9bb7679eb96e35e4aceaab662e554683647fe8a84acdc76dcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,849
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,849 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 26c | 4,502$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.02 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 0c | 3,191$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed No | 72c | 1,400$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e49…0424backed No | 76c | 1,159$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…875dbacked No | 62c | 503.37$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.01 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 75c | 355$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.85 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 52c | 235.65$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…52f1backed Yes | 34c | 199.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 17c | 114.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…5f71backed Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…201abacked Yes | 39c | 107$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a6…9c94backed No | 73c | 85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7f…094cbacked No | 78c | 75$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed Yes | 21c | 71.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 71c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes | 28c | 49.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 74c | 44.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f80…7be8backed No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a0…69aebacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked Yes | 43c | 31.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3d…d6a5backed No | 68c | 30.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…100cbacked No | 73c | 30.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 68c | 27.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9b…5e0dbacked No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…64f8backed No | 77c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?this page
- Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?No won
- Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?No won
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?No won
- Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?No won
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?No won
- Will there be more than 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.