Weather · resolved market
Will there be more than 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x494a3cf85db0b3ea700f506ed9e4c12e4e1bc57c16dd71c512daa9056bf1e4bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 43c | 2,080$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.29 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 6c | 1,505$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,414.7 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 28c | 1,307$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.5 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…7cbabacked Yes | 1c | 1,094$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -6.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf9…9b13backed No | 48c | 939.27$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.89 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…875dbacked No | 67c | 728.64$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.1 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 11c | 400$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 10c | 291$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.53 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 4c | 256$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 4c | 252.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 6c | 252.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 35c | 231.87$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.74 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 11c | 225$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.25 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…52f1backed No | 71c | 220.33$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x608e…450dbacked No | 78c | 154.28$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 9c | 126.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.11 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 117.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507b…0742backed Yes | 52c | 117.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 117.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 38c | 106.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…201abacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…3c00backed No | 20c | 90.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.4 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 90$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…100cbacked No | 54c | 89.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.29 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0476…50b3backed Yes | 35c | 86.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 54c | 78.19$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x50d2…5c8bbacked Yes | 29c | 74.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 39c | 60.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 20c | 55.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 49.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 30c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 32c | 43.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked No | 73c | 31.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85b5…c3bcbacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…88b9backed No | 73c | 29.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…2900backed No | 77c | 28.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdc…444dbacked Yes | 43c | 28.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…8679backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…21cbbacked Yes | 65c | 27.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be more than 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?this page
- Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?No won
- Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?No won
- Will there be exactly 11 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?No won
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?No won
- Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?No won
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.