Weather · resolved market
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fed042b06bddacde07e0a33aa58b27c2dc46519e6bdd069088a1b45bf0e6b25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,074
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,074 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 1c | 9,678$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9060…790bbacked Yes | 19c | 2,986$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.15 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed No | 80c | 1,400$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73ab…5468backed Yes | 15c | 751.39$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.12 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 554.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…e4bcbacked No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 11c | 99.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…8763backed Yes | 22c | 68.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked Yes | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 19.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?this page
- Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?No won
- Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?No won
- Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?No won
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?No won
- Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.