Weather · resolved market
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcbb9347e6d3b8a940aba6e4b82add500ec6dd7f0575179cd1d895aa9460e641
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed Yes | 12c | 2,629$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.27 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9060…790bbacked No | 79c | 2,218$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.64 | 36 | 11.1%4 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 1,851$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.35 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 14c | 1,338$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked Yes | 14c | 724.69$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 5c | 717.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…7e10backed No | 77c | 565.2$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.76 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…9816backed Yes | 44c | 400$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde62…1945backed Yes | 44c | 224.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed No | 60c | 194.28$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.56 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f61…8554backed No | 55c | 186.7$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.02 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…2410backed Yes | 15c | 174.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 17c | 165.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 16c | 142.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…2ab7backed Yes | 19c | 134.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc13d…c6b2backed Yes | 7c | 133.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfe…54f9backed Yes | 11c | 127.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…56edbacked Yes | 17c | 107.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 69c | 90.62$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 17c | 89.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 22c | 85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…309abacked Yes | 26c | 73.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 65c | 51.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…ec11backed Yes | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 53c | 49.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 71c | 47.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x886a…a7d7backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…57c8backed No | 60c | 41.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x633b…2c2ebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…52f1backed No | 56c | 32.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 32.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553e…df91backed Yes | 46c | 30.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…f87cbacked Yes | 35c | 30.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…67dbbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 57c | 29.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 73c | 26.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd12a…4abfbacked Yes | 50c | 20.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2327backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…2900backed No | 61c | 18.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceef…17b1backed No | 62c | 17.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?this page
- Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?No won
- Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?No won
- Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?No won
- Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?Yes won
- Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?No won
- Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?No won
- Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.