Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x08e03d960c25d7d6403df98dd976a487fa1d96315226f10715b72bffccc14c96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $331,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $266,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $331,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 32,259$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.24 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…9400backed Yes | 0c | 30,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 2c | 24,981$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.05 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 22,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 0c | 19,781$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 0c | 14,212$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 2c | 4,909$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.41 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,235$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed Yes | 2c | 3,121$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.91 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 11c | 2,684$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.16 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,669$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.86 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 3c | 2,473$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.59 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Yes | 7c | 2,320$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…9d4bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,138$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.89 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 4c | 2,082$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.43 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb5…3f64backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.75 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,976$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3c…1a17backed Yes | 2c | 1,970$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.79 | 27 | 3.7%1 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 4c | 1,715$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 8c | 1,464$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 8c | 1,419$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.47 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 8c | 1,337$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.88 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2379…178ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,296$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 167 | 16.2%27 W · 140 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,170$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 2c | 1,022$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 6c | 999.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 7c | 904.85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…44a5backed Yes | 9c | 868.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.28 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 6c | 866.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 8c | 858.4$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 3c | 849.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 114 | 18.4%21 W · 93 L | +10.0wins | +0.09per pick | 10cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 8c | 823.51$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.97 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 8c | 774.64$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf92d…a225backed Yes | 13c | 773.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 233 | 8.2%19 W · 214 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 6c | 726.07$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 2c | 662.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 229 | 26.6%61 W · 168 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 620.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…2eb1backed Yes | 10c | 602.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 5c | 600$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ef…ab48backed Yes | 8c | 599.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 538.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68fe…ef80backed Yes | 2c | 529.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes | 5c | 524.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…9b09backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa028…0f33backed Yes | 16c | 499.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 483.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 491 | 6.7%33 W · 458 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffc…e087backed Yes | 4c | 456.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…fa48backed Yes | 12c | 441$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec07…ca80backed Yes | 16c | 420.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.68 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…c978backed Yes | 11c | 363.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 92 | 13%12 W · 80 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b54…2d32backed Yes | 11c | 356.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes | 4c | 350.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 142 | 16.9%24 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 4c | 333.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b2a…5aa6backed Yes | 5c | 312.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…77acbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 159 | 25.2%40 W · 119 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4473…28adbacked Yes | 8c | 294.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 184 | 19%35 W · 149 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…4665backed Yes | 5c | 292.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 17c | 289$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 278 | 20.9%58 W · 220 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 9c | 281.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4381…6bd6backed Yes | 5c | 274.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 10c | 269.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd14b…3810backed Yes | 13c | 265.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 6c | 231.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…0d90backed Yes | 11c | 226.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 4c | 225.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f2…34d0backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdadf…8034backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…0fa7backed Yes | 17c | 174.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked Yes | 12c | 163.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9484…a173backed Yes | 16c | 149.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 400 | 16.8%67 W · 333 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6b…0420backed Yes | 29c | 149.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 101 | 29.7%30 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8164…df78backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 122.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 395 | 18.7%74 W · 321 L | -57.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…5827backed Yes | 9c | 107.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 296 | 10.5%31 W · 265 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e43…b356backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 178 | 18.5%33 W · 145 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 15c | 98.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 199 | 33.2%66 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 11c | 96.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe096…be8ebacked No | 66c | 79.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 232 | 12.1%28 W · 204 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d32…76e1backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9db5…701ebacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 86 | 79.1%68 W · 18 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.