Fifa International · resolved market
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60977e42e8e372d0f1a714a1bd3394d2a93888f13abc62b77df46448c5d5b045
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 6c | 7,500$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 6,390$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.24 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5f…1695backed Yes | 5c | 5,813$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 372 | 23.9%89 W · 283 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18e6…d83dbacked Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | -12.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 7c | 3,500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Yes | 8c | 3,499$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.4 | 361 | 23.5%85 W · 276 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Yes | 7c | 2,771$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x856c…3d49backed Yes | 6c | 2,579$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…a017backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +146.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe04b…3ec7backed Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…734bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,574$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 454 | 21.4%97 W · 357 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4363…8209backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf695…409fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,175$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…8c97backed Yes | 9c | 1,155$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 23.6%38 W · 123 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…3e04backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…9260backed Yes | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…f76abacked Yes | 3c | 794.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398b…97eebacked Yes | 6c | 747.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a68…ad4cbacked Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb92f…e9f5backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…0670backed Yes | 8c | 691.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.34 | 122 | 41%50 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fb…8b8bbacked Yes | 6c | 666.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e22…9fa5backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 318 | 9.4%30 W · 288 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x963f…b421backed Yes | 6c | 600$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4715…6efbbacked Yes | 6c | 583.33$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbeb…f499backed Yes | 7c | 574.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdec2…b015backed Yes | 7c | 521.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056e…14afbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 92 | 14.1%13 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032b…9d22backed Yes | 6c | 483.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac9…b4bbbacked Yes | 5c | 380$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf8…6d0ebacked Yes | 7c | 357.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb33d…28c3backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…4c7abacked Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 187 | 36.4%68 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb67…b610backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb32…bbadbacked Yes | 6c | 306.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa278…3369backed Yes | 7c | 303.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 1,111 | 24.3%270 W · 841 L | -32.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c5…6f9cbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 130 | 21.5%28 W · 102 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a30…7b6cbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8693…cc0dbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2397…55bcbacked Yes | 10c | 262.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a8…d7b7backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 204 | 27.5%56 W · 148 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x856b…d0f8backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…2ee2backed Yes | 8c | 237.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed Yes | 9c | 233.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 119 | 28.6%34 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…e5a7backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -6.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…a095backed Yes | 6c | 173.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe39…cf5fbacked Yes | 25c | 161.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63cf…94ddbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6db…5199backed Yes | 8c | 127.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…2c32backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…e863backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…4e37backed Yes | 9c | 123.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 51 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goalsthis page
- Bradley Barcola: 1+ goalsNo won
- Bradley Barcola: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 1+ assistsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 1+ goalsYes won
- Désiré Doué: 1+ shotsYes won
- Désiré Doué: 2+ goalsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 3+ goalsNo won
- Désiré Doué: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Erling Haaland: 1+ assistsNo won
- Erling Haaland: 1+ goalsNo won
- Erling Haaland: 1+ goals + assistsNo won
- Erling Haaland: 1+ shotsNo won
- Erling Haaland: 2+ goalsNo won
- Erling Haaland: 2+ shotsNo won
- Erling Haaland: 3+ goalsNo won
- Jean-Philippe Mateta: 3+ goalsNo won
- Jean-Philippe Mateta: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ goals + assistsNo won
- Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ shotsYes won
- Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ goalsNo won
- Jørgen Strand Larsen: 2+ shotsYes won
- Jørgen Strand Larsen: 3+ goalsNo won
- Jørgen Strand Larsen: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 1+ assistsYes won
- Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsNo won
- Kylian Mbappé: 2+ assistsYes won
- Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goalsNo won
- Maghnes Akliouche: 3+ goalsNo won
- Maghnes Akliouche: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Marcus Thuram: 1+ assistsNo won
- Marcus Thuram: 3+ goalsNo won
- Marcus Thuram: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Michael Olise: 1+ assistsNo won
- Michael Olise: 1+ goalsNo won
- Michael Olise: 1+ shotsYes won
- Michael Olise: 2+ assistsNo won
- Michael Olise: 2+ goalsNo won
- Michael Olise: 3+ goalsNo won
- Michael Olise: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assistsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goalsYes won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ assistsNo won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 2+ goalsYes won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 3+ goalsYes won
- Ousmane Dembélé: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Rayan Cherki: 1+ goalsNo won
- Rayan Cherki: 3+ goalsNo won
- Rayan Cherki: 4+ goals + assistsNo won
- Thelo Aasgaard: 1+ goalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.