Lol · resolved market
Will G2 Esports win MSI 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4efb10f393b316f77ad9297451ccc1e0bc178b1787ce86c352ffd62e2d6f6cec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $921,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $873,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $921,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x831a…d532backed Yes | 0c | 797,635$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,219$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.87 | 898 | 10.7%96 W · 802 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…0bffbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 225 | 32.4%73 W · 152 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…8927backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 420 | 50.5%212 W · 208 L | +27.9wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 4,568$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.34 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 1cpaid | +572.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…179abacked Yes | 4c | 4,423$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.73 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…ea47backed Yes | 3c | 3,700$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.7 | 1,294 | 26.6%344 W · 950 L | +65.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 3,548$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x695d…0d7cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,624$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.71 | 675 | 53.5%361 W · 314 L | +25.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed Yes | 3c | 2,300$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.4 | 151 | 35.1%53 W · 98 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…ae44backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 893 | 47%420 W · 473 L | +44.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x835b…118fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,000$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1607…79bebacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed Yes | 5c | 1,990$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 354 | 48.6%172 W · 182 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa487…9439backed Yes | 5c | 1,958$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87cb…643abacked Yes | 6c | 1,875$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.79 | 82 | 37.8%31 W · 51 L | -8.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 5c | 1,845$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.48 | 961 | 49.9%480 W · 481 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff7…2e67backed Yes | 3c | 1,793$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1c…e369backed Yes | 5c | 1,701$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 215 | 46%99 W · 116 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18f3…0c20backed Yes | 7c | 1,601$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.81 | 161 | 55.3%89 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…3cc3backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe470…4187backed Yes | 7c | 1,435$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf54b…2cdbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,407$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…a2cbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,291$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 245 | 54.3%133 W · 112 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…c88dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,030$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf48…78e0backed Yes | 5c | 1,016$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…cd1ebacked Yes | 7c | 896.68$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 791 | 56.1%444 W · 347 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…ed08backed Yes | 7c | 889.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.85 | 122 | 20.5%25 W · 97 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 6c | 794.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +137.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…72c2backed Yes | 6c | 753.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +205.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba48…907cbacked Yes | 4c | 725$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 981 | 63.8%626 W · 355 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f8…7de3backed Yes | 7c | 700$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 4c | 677.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 218 | 36.7%80 W · 138 L | -13.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…5d9cbacked Yes | 5c | 648.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 634.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557c…ca66backed Yes | 8c | 617.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x788e…e086backed Yes | 2c | 608.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 2c | 539.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 941 | 34.5%325 W · 616 L | +33.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1915…6356backed Yes | 5c | 510.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c4…faa9backed Yes | 5c | 502.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12dc…9832backed Yes | 4c | 495.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5df…8f9bbacked Yes | 7c | 493.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 2c | 480.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 7c | 463.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 354 | 35.3%125 W · 229 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 4c | 453.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 441.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…77d6backed Yes | 5c | 408.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d12…543bbacked Yes | 5c | 395.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a88…0296backed Yes | 5c | 373.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc7…fc33backed Yes | 7c | 365.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 363.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 2,508 | 39.8%999 W · 1,509 L | -76.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d3…0730backed Yes | 6c | 343.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 5c | 328.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 163 | 39.3%64 W · 99 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…5880backed Yes | 6c | 323.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf163…ca34backed Yes | 4c | 315.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1,477 | 48.3%713 W · 764 L | +45.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd343…96d0backed Yes | 6c | 301.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f14…e4eebacked Yes | 6c | 279.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 6c | 267.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4acabacked Yes | 5c | 257.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked Yes | 6c | 230.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 5c | 210.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…efbebacked Yes | 10c | 201.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…23ffbacked Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3769…b797backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0823…0c4abacked Yes | 5c | 197.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +262.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc78d…e9f0backed Yes | 8c | 150.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb23d…8ba5backed Yes | 8c | 129.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will G2 Esports win MSI 2026?this page
- Will Bilibili Gaming win MSI 2026?No won
- Will FURIA win MSI 2026?No won
- Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026?Yes won
- Will Karmine Corp win MSI 2026?No won
- Will T1 win MSI 2026?No won
- Will Team Liquid win MSI 2026?No won
- Will Team Secret Whales win MSI 2026?No won
- Will Top Esports win MSI 2026?No won
- Will another team (incl. Lyon) win MSI 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.