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NBA · resolved market

Pacers vs. Kings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kingsof Pacers, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,930,714

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,930,714 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,639 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdb27…c56ebacked Pacers38c106,441$40,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,447.4887144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa491…3177backed Kings62c100,000$61,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,000.995959.3%35 W · 24 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Kings63c83,565$52,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,919.1666248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Pacers41c66,262$27,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,167.3743148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Kings26c48,263$12,718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,544.2359646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Kings60c43,021$25,649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,372.411,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Kings56c39,300$22,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,246.2327865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Pacers55c36,079$19,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,877.520744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Pacers0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pacers73c23,138$16,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,910.298,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Kings33c22,245$7,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,894.795,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Pacers45c21,683$9,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,753.6827251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Pacers66c21,021$13,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,793.871,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ceb…7dfbbacked Pacers39c20,002$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,8002646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c1d…3846backed Kings61c20,000$12,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,799.96943.5%30 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Kings40c17,600$7,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,503.469629.2%28 W · 68 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa21…1438backed Kings46c17,210$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,210.2216848.2%81 W · 87 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Kings59c17,090$10,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,006.98361.4%51 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Pacers47c14,747$6,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,988.5126353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f04…73d5backed Pacers39c14,202$5,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5385444.4%24 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0441…b3aabacked Kings61c14,200$8,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,5388441.7%35 W · 49 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a68…7b56backed Kings60c13,972$8,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,629.148055%44 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4738…df78backed Kings73c13,766$10,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,667.6517150.3%86 W · 85 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Pacers42c13,638$5,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,727.9210930.3%33 W · 76 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Kings11c13,485$1,435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,049.2129352.6%154 W · 139 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Pacers58c12,596$7,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,276.731,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Kings49c12,054$5,864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,190.0710743%46 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Kings18c11,139$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,128.871,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa25d…2227backed Pacers49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90010641.5%44 W · 62 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Kings34c9,034$3,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,002.6772241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Kings31c9,030$2,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,251.254,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d34…3406backed Kings75c8,665$6,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,163.0116162.7%101 W · 60 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Kings52c8,570$4,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,081.829,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Pacers56c8,544$4,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,752.1985344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Pacers42c8,511$3,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,57415850.6%80 W · 78 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pacers49c8,286$4,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,098.034,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Kings17c8,280$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,84316039.4%63 W · 97 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Kings49c8,200$4,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,14224549%120 W · 125 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31a6…0dcfbacked Pacers17c8,007$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.0817028.8%49 W · 121 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Pacers40c7,623$3,017 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,017.244,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x189e…2113backed Kings59c7,400$4,366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,033.991266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+30.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Pacers18c7,358$1,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,311.423,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Kings8c7,266$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,668.261,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Pacers68c7,189$4,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,887.493,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Pacers67c6,682$4,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,497.6758951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Kings61c6,549$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,549.461,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce7…e812backed Pacers78c6,249$4,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8852360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4899…c212backed Kings49c6,126$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1261060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e7c…cbaabacked Kings59c6,076$3,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,506.236944.9%31 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Kings59c6,000$3,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,460.3732039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdab7…24ecbacked Pacers74c5,979$4,445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,444.8316065%104 W · 56 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4398…2c1bbacked Kings62c5,320$3,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,022.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Kings71c5,228$3,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,538.339744.3%176 W · 221 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Kings49c5,226$2,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,665.0719645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Pacers36c5,072$1,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,825.2493148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8000…3a21backed Pacers44c5,000$2,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,183.5425947.5%123 W · 136 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7312…df72backed Kings41c4,909$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,908.9910523.8%25 W · 80 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-38.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb00a…c58cbacked Pacers65c4,880$3,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,149.171931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-46%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Pacers64c4,866$3,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,114.82,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01fc…5c93backed Kings19c4,856$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,949.61771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick40cpaid+92.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Pacers41c4,818$1,961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,960.7780737.7%304 W · 503 L-33.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x98d2…796ebacked Pacers76c4,327$3,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,309.559250%46 W · 46 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Kings59c4,019$2,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,638.224,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec87…97c1backed Pacers40c3,599$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.81154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Pacers42c3,572$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50056453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pacers53c3,337$1,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,761.025,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6734…2e18backed Kings59c3,174$1,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,301.487459.5%44 W · 30 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kings10c3,143$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,816.42,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings45c3,140$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,729.973,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Kings8c3,108$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,867.111435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick20cpaid+149.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Pacers0c3,071$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.598820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Kings61c3,042$1,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.482,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Kings59c3,000$1,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,23038649.7%192 W · 194 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x677a…fd6cbacked Pacers41c2,800$1,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1481030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-40.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x050e…4294backed Kings62c2,663$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb313…7ba4backed Kings62c2,641$1,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x48cf…aed4backed Pacers40c2,605$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d43…ce68backed Kings42c2,602$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,501.9817247.7%82 W · 90 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x009a…9ce1backed Kings59c2,547$1,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b77…ee2cbacked Kings52c2,532$1,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.393070%21 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Kings51c2,529$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.1935650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Kings67c2,520$1,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.1242348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Kings60c2,500$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.7386641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fe1…4691backed Kings59c2,449$1,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,004.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad6f…cbcdbacked Kings60c2,444$1,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.61942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf996…2ac4backed Pacers41c2,394$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.38250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked Pacers12c2,353$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.7621137.9%80 W · 131 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-29.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa803…2949backed Kings60c2,347$1,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.199345.2%42 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e32…d479backed Pacers3c2,331$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7013115.3%20 W · 111 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-47.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Pacers71c2,301$1,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,634.5889444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x189e…eb68backed Pacers41c2,300$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.75944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e29…9e66backed Pacers67c2,285$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530.550241.2%207 W · 295 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Pacers55c2,233$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.835547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Pacers44c2,223$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98717247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Kings60c2,191$1,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.7825554.1%138 W · 117 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Pacers74c2,176$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,60024151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7d…fbafbacked Kings20c2,099$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,674.192100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+265.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Pacers65c2,007$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,303.9536023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc07a…fb98backed Kings60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8001258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Pacers42c2,000$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.3543051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.