NBA · resolved market
Spread: Kings (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a5ae18e39be5b4c7fa691e670f2751f5c3d2a8334687b5c5368f6ec97fc8e29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Kings, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,142 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Kings | 53c | 23,385$12,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,991.18 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…7d67backed Pacers | 46c | 18,513$8,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,515.41 | 308 | 45.8%141 W · 167 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d8…9f3fbacked Pacers | 47c | 18,155$8,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,533 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Kings | 54c | 10,000$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,600.15 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Kings | 54c | 9,802$5,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,508.72 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…1fb9backed Pacers | 47c | 8,126$3,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,819.22 | 316 | 43.4%137 W · 179 L | -18.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 46c | 7,079$3,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,262.47 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 54c | 5,960$3,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,764.01 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kings | 53c | 5,883$3,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,764.97 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7af9…b408backed Pacers | 47c | 3,162$1,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Kings | 54c | 1,500$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.15 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Pacers | 46c | 1,193$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.59 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Kings | 54c | 1,028$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.87 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c2…8f23backed Pacers | 47c | 951.89$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.24 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3860…0efcbacked Pacers | 47c | 728.15$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.23 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Pacers | 46c | 645.87$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.69 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Kings | 53c | 640.11$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.85 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Pacers | 47c | 532.24$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 358 | 49.7%178 W · 180 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…8043backed Kings | 44c | 324.99$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd947…9b61backed Kings | 53c | 320$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.4 | 287 | 51.9%149 W · 138 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Kings | 47c | 238.63$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.57 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Pacers | 55c | 218.97$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Kings | 17c | 200$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 381 | 52.8%201 W · 180 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Kings | 53c | 126.42$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.42 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x322f…65a5backed Pacers | 47c | 117.02$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Kings | 54c | 116.19$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 220 | 48.6%107 W · 113 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaea…4bbfbacked Kings | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 405 | 41%166 W · 239 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4147…902abacked Kings | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Kings | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 298 | 44%131 W · 167 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kings | 49c | 68.63$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Pacers | 46c | 65.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked Pacers | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 127 | 39.4%50 W · 77 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1248…8db1backed Kings | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Kings | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Kings | 54c | 59.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Kings | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Pacers | 47c | 53.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Kings | 57c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Kings | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Pacers | 55c | 46.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Kings | 54c | 46.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Kings | 53c | 44.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 140 | 46.4%65 W · 75 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Pacers | 47c | 43.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 260 | 34.6%90 W · 170 L | -20.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Kings | 44c | 40.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Pacers | 47c | 39.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 399 | 43.1%172 W · 227 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Kings | 54c | 37.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 256 | 51.6%132 W · 124 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Kings | 54c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 765 | 52.9%405 W · 360 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…a68bbacked Kings | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Kings | 54c | 33.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40fe…4910backed Kings | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e68…7477backed Pacers | 47c | 30.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Kings | 54c | 28.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Pacers | 47c | 26.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 296 | 45.6%135 W · 161 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bf…f357backed Pacers | 47c | 25.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 169 | 53.3%90 W · 79 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Kings | 54c | 24.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kings (-2.5)this page
- Maxime Raynaud: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Pacers vs. KingsKings won
- Pacers vs. Kings: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Pacers vs. Kings: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Kings: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Kings: O/U 236.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Kings: O/U 237.5Under won
- Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Spread: Kings (-3.5)Kings won
- Spread: Kings (-4.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.