NBA · resolved market
Spread: Kings (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfba5f46603c8d3fc4b8de2d51a62715c1c0398c535a0f2a3149da5799fd02277
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Kings, Pacers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,082 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x605d…cec3backed Kings | 53c | 2,453$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.91 | 154 | 50.6%78 W · 76 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Pacers | 51c | 2,301$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.25 | 270 | 52.6%142 W · 128 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Kings | 49c | 2,067$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.39 | 348 | 51.7%180 W · 168 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e1e…bb68backed Pacers | 54c | 1,866$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pacers | 49c | 1,739$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Pacers | 54c | 1,396$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.3 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Kings | 47c | 1,175$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.17 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x901a…6d69backed Kings | 62c | 907.21$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.01 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Pacers | 52c | 806.74$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.66 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Pacers | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Kings | 48c | 520.74$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.09 | 260 | 34.6%90 W · 170 L | -20.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…5d9dbacked Kings | 47c | 492.04$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.79 | 233 | 48.9%114 W · 119 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Pacers | 39c | 464$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.11 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Kings | 44c | 394.91$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.66 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451f…7301backed Pacers | 54c | 370.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Kings | 46c | 309.37$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.06 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Pacers | 58c | 295.48$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…6c27backed Pacers | 54c | 292$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.68 | 451 | 51.4%232 W · 219 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443d…017fbacked Pacers | 55c | 243.91$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.08 | 235 | 50.2%118 W · 117 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Pacers | 55c | 243.66$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.77 | 335 | 54.6%183 W · 152 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Pacers | 50c | 223.22$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…379fbacked Pacers | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 302 | 24.8%75 W · 227 L | +15.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Pacers | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Kings | 46c | 190$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.79 | 1,163 | 52.8%614 W · 549 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Kings | 46c | 155$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Kings | 49c | 151.51$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.15 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Pacers | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Pacers | 54c | 144.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf16…65a6backed Kings | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c6…0bcdbacked Pacers | 50c | 98.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f5…59c3backed Kings | 51c | 98.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kings | 48c | 97.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Kings | 52c | 71.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc4…a439backed Pacers | 50c | 70.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Kings | 48c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f82fbacked Pacers | 47c | 68.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Pacers | 48c | 64.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 301 | 51.8%156 W · 145 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kings | 46c | 63.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Pacers | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 256 | 55.5%142 W · 114 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…20eebacked Kings | 46c | 54.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.51 | 358 | 43.6%156 W · 202 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Kings | 46c | 54.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…01c7backed Kings | 47c | 53.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 538 | 39.4%212 W · 326 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Pacers | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 161 | 41.6%67 W · 94 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…db7bbacked Pacers | 54c | 46.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee3…bf37backed Pacers | 54c | 45.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Kings | 46c | 44.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Kings | 33c | 43.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Kings | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Kings | 46c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 765 | 52.9%405 W · 360 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Pacers | 51c | 41.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…336dbacked Kings | 49c | 40.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +10.7wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Pacers | 51c | 40.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Pacers | 55c | 38.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Kings | 42c | 29.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322f…65a5backed Pacers | 55c | 29.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0307…7ab8backed Kings | 46c | 25.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 454 | 52%236 W · 218 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Kings | 49c | 25.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Kings | 48c | 21.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Pacers | 50c | 20.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed Pacers | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Pacers | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c9…db17backed Pacers | 53c | 19.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kings (-4.5)this page
- Maxime Raynaud: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Pacers vs. KingsKings won
- Pacers vs. Kings: 1H MoneylinePacers won
- Pacers vs. Kings: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Kings: O/U 235.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Kings: O/U 236.5Under won
- Pacers vs. Kings: O/U 237.5Under won
- Precious Achiuwa: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Spread: Kings (-2.5)Kings won
- Spread: Kings (-3.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.