NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 238.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4de0df411d2d1affca1455c68bed616dd112fe4622a2d7878f75ce7dcbdd61fd

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 11, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $457,235

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $457,235 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4924…3782backed Over	47c	247,940$117,321 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$130,618.94	874	51.5%450 W · 424 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under	53c	150,000$79,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79,500	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under	52c	69,644$36,215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36,214.7	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Over	48c	67,636$32,244 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35,391.95	1,044	47.5%496 W · 548 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Under	52c	50,000$26,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25,999.99	246	50%123 W · 123 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over	48c	44,185$21,015 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23,169.69	662	48.5%321 W · 341 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	52c	24,936$13,068 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13,067.86	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Over	48c	21,535$10,337 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,198.12	1,194	48.8%583 W · 611 L	-22.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Under	53c	10,554$5,634 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,633.61	134	42.5%57 W · 77 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under	52c	10,000$5,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,200	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under	53c	7,093$3,733 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,732.79	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Under	53c	3,929$2,082 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,082.37	1,908	54.5%1,040 W · 868 L	+53.7wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under	43c	2,420$1,042 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,042.04	1,645	47.5%782 W · 863 L	+40.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under	52c	2,297$1,191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,191.37	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Under	51c	1,961$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000.11	266	37.2%99 W · 167 L	-10.5wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under	52c	1,888$983 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$982.86	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x128f…db9dbacked Over	57c	1,800$1,026 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$774	206	51.5%106 W · 100 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Under	52c	1,267$659 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$658.89	715	47.7%341 W · 374 L	-26.9wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Under	52c	1,267$659 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$658.63	956	51.5%492 W · 464 L	+23.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Under	52c	1,266$658 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$658.32	589	51.3%302 W · 287 L	+6.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked Under	52c	1,260$655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$655.2	473	54.8%259 W · 214 L	+14.2wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Under	52c	1,049$545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$545.48	544	43%234 W · 310 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Under	53c	1,035$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$552.89	1,163	52.8%614 W · 549 L	+22.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…d83abacked Under	52c	1,000$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	87	47.1%41 W · 46 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	52c	995.01$519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$518.85	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under	53c	800$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424	456	47.1%215 W · 241 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Over	49c	728.07$357 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$371.32	293	51.5%151 W · 142 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36c0…5930backed Over	48c	721.52$346 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$375.19	51	52.9%27 W · 24 L	+3.5wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Under	53c	712$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.29	348	51.7%180 W · 168 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	51c	692.22$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.49	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	49c	632.17$307 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$325.14	3,668	41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L	-70.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4112…5d9dbacked Over	47c	569.62$268 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$301.33	233	48.9%114 W · 119 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf05d…ac5ebacked Under	53c	566.04$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	251	55%138 W · 113 L	+9.4wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Under	53c	500$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	480	54.2%260 W · 220 L	+14.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd744…526fbacked Under	52c	500$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	44	43.2%19 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3af5…caebbacked Over	48c	241.57$117 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.84	118	50%59 W · 59 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over	47c	223.82$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.62	545	49.5%270 W · 275 L	-5.3wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Under	52c	205$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.65	807	37.7%304 W · 503 L	-33.9wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Under	53c	188.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	129	51.9%67 W · 62 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	53c	182.01$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.47	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Over	48c	145.83$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.83	463	46.4%215 W · 248 L	-16.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8487…a68bbacked Under	53c	140$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.2	67	41.8%28 W · 39 L	-4.8wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over	51c	122.06$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60.28	1,532	42.5%651 W · 881 L	-17.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Over	48c	104.38$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.38	534	53.4%285 W · 249 L	+19.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd80f…92febacked Under	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	555	33.5%186 W · 369 L	-15.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaa1…176bbacked Under	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	70	48.6%34 W · 36 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	53c	94.33$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.99	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9135…8362backed Over	72c	94.02$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.63	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	68cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over	57c	82.68$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.42	903	57%515 W · 388 L	+40.0wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Over	48c	81$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.29	628	44.9%282 W · 346 L	-21.3wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under	44c	66.51$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.35	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Under	52c	63.4$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.97	1,322	49.9%660 W · 662 L	+13.7wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Over	55c	62.75$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.17	1,055	49.9%526 W · 529 L	+29.7wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b85…bf37backed Over	49c	57$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.07	360	45%162 W · 198 L	-10.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95fe…3896backed Under	53c	56.6$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	170	46.5%79 W · 91 L	-7.0wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Under	55c	56.36$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f5…8335backed Over	50c	54.51$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.25	66	59.1%39 W · 27 L	+5.9wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Under	52c	53.39$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.76	525	52%273 W · 252 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Under	53c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.5	243	34.2%83 W · 160 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x584c…0da9backed Over	49c	49$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.04	118	47.5%56 W · 62 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Over	58c	47.71$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.9	1,096	40.9%448 W · 648 L	+34.3wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-17%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Under	28c	45.78$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.01	111	28.8%32 W · 79 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Under	52c	45.65$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.74	435	44.6%194 W · 241 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea58…b635backed Over	45c	45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.57	149	31.5%47 W · 102 L	-18.4wins	-0.12per pick	44cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9683…108bbacked Over	47c	42.55$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.55	59	55.9%33 W · 26 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x287c…78aabacked Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	46cpaid	+21.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb95…a5ccbacked Under	53c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	244	42.6%104 W · 140 L	-17.8wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x61e4…fb60backed Under	53c	40$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	220	44.5%98 W · 122 L	-14.2wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under	37c	39.87$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.76	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under	52c	38.81$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.18	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbd7…bdfbbacked Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Over	48c	37.98$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.85	950	47.2%448 W · 502 L	-28.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under	52c	26.97$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.02	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over	57c	25$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.67	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0307…7ab8backed Over	64c	23.9$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.7	454	52%236 W · 218 L	+11.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x592a…7f8bbacked Over	48c	23.56$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.2	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc119…7d4dbacked Under	53c	22.64$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	176	50%88 W · 88 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x624e…e95cbacked Over	48c	22.27$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.53	19	68.4%13 W · 6 L	+2.6wins	+0.14per pick	55cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c75…de96backed Over	65c	21.92$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.67	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+17%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x62ff…ec56backed Over	47c	21.88$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.53	252	45.2%114 W · 138 L	-11.7wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Under	54c	19.78$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.68	331	46.2%153 W · 178 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Over	66c	17.98$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.17	142	64.8%92 W · 50 L	+9.6wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8882…c67dbacked Over	78c	15.44$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.4	52	59.6%31 W · 21 L	+4.7wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Wizards vs. Heat: O/U 238.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event